It took more than 12 hours for CNN to make a passing mention in their international edition ( so did BBC), about the terrorist attck in Uri, where more than 17 Indian soldiers were killed.
For those of us, who are anxious to flash " we stand by Paris" or " we are with Sydney" memes and change of FB profile pics to reflect those sentiments, this is yet another reminder, that while you and I think that human lives, at least outside our borders, are the same, the western world clearly does not think so. Clearly, for them, some are more equal than the others.
Let us continue on our path of generosity. Generosity manifested in those profile picture changes, to express solidarity with the West. Generosity that goes to show our "secular" credentials, before anyone else can ( hey, how else can one show off his erudite upbringing, or his intellectual moorings?) . Generosity, that extends well beyond extending token solidarities with the West, and right into the hands of those terrorists that repeatedly alternate between our left and right cheeks, delivery surgical slaps, the latest being Uri.
We have no one else, but ourselves, to blame. The vertebral column of the nation has been systematically dismantled, the day Nehru signed the Panchsheel accord. Indira Gandhi fortified that notion when she raided right into the enemy territory, captured it, only to pussy-foot later. And not mention the successive congress governments , whose economic messiah PM kept releasing statements that we will take strict action against perpetrators, every time an act of terrorism happened in this very soil, but did precious little else. And this NDA government, I am afraid, is treading down the same garden path, decorated by encomia on it's lawns, but with no real action. Almost six months into the Pathankot fiasco, and no action has been taken.
It is hardly surprising the the western media could not care less for terrorist attacks on India. No one takes notice of nations that insist on projecting themselves as weak-kneed. Neither the Western governments, nor their media. And for that matter, not even our own people. For, come tomorrow, wreaths will be placed on the martyrs, a few rabble-rousing speeches will be made from the ramparts of the Red Fort. And the nation will invariably slip back to indifference.
We seem to take no real pride in our jawans. Those lives lost, defending the border, clearly, appear to mean nothing special.
Until we learn to put a premium on the the lives lost, defending the nation, blood will continue to flow in the border. And callousness will continue.
On 19th Sep, two years ago, Mandolin Srinivas stopped providing divine music to earthly mortals. Perhaps God wanted him to do the same in the the heavens.
Back in the 80s, I was representing SPIC-MACAY in my college, and had met him a few times over, at his house, in connection with programs in my college and elsewhere. I found him an extremely humble human being, soft spoken, with a lot of respect for elders, and an infectious, child-like enthusiasm for music, which lasted till his very last breath. When he played, the music simply flowed out of his hands. He took the listener to hitherto unknown depths of music, something that only geniuses can do.
I miss your divine music, Srinivas. Waiting for your successor in the music field, here on earth, while you entertain the Gods up there.
Probably around 6 years ago or so ( don't remember exactly when), I had entered this stock at a "lofty" price of about 2550 or so. What I was skeptical about, was not the price ( I don't get intimidated by the price of one stock) but the rather high P/E that the stock was asking for. I was skeptical, that for an underwear company, a P/E of about 40 was " not comfortable" ( pun intended). Bought just 10 shares, thinking " I will buy more when the prices crash to 200( stupid me!)"
That 200 never came. 2550 has become 15000 now, over this period. I have stayed on, kicking myself that I should have bought more then. Hindsight wisdom is always dis-heartening, you see! But that is not the point.
What made me pick the stock? The brand name Jockey, though not very big then, seemed to strike a chord. I had observed that the company was positioning it nicely, to tap into the youth market. Immediately, I guessed that this could mean premium pricing, and increased profits, as long as the product quality was good. I told myself " P/E 40 looks scary, but I am prepared to lose 20000 rupess on this horse if required, if this turns out be a fad".
Turns out to be anything but a fad. The brand is ubiquitous, in all urban centres, and tier 2 cities. It is amply evident that "mind share" of the customer is big, for Jockey. There are other brands like Rupa, Lovable etc, that are listed, and are doing OK- but not as dominant as Page, at least going by the numbers and the consistent growth, quarter on quarter.
They started off with underwear. Then comfortably expanded into lingerie. And then extended the brand into simple tees. And have gone on, into socks. What next?
I did not know much about the management then. I do not know much about it even now. Not that I care, in this case, for, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
Jockey is a dominant brand. From the looks of it, it will remain so for some more time. The company, to me, clearly have got their marketing act together very well. Their product positioning is spot-on, and pricing continues to be premium.
In hindsight, Page Ind has been a great buy for me. I am staying on.
PS: I have not given any numbers to back my above statements, since I am sharing my experience, and not recommending it per se.
If one wants to enter, it is not too late even now. Nibble during dips - after doing your homework.
I am used to wearing my Veshti (dhoti) for Vedic chantings that we do regularly at the temple, and elsewhere. Not the usual casual way, but as Panchakacham ( 5 yards), that traditional form of wearing , that is disappearing faster than the MLAs of AAP. You can safely consider me as one of those "shameless morons" , who does not bat an eyelid, walking out in Panchakacham on the roads of Singapore, and in buses. (How dare I!)
Today being a Sunday, we had Suryanamaskara Mantram chantings at a friend's place. I got up late, as usual, and rushed in my hastily clad panchakacham. I must admit I do a decent job of it, in less than 2 minutes, no mean achievement, if you know what I mean. Most of us men, who venture into Panchakacham, will appreciate the nuances involved in wearing one. The proportions to the right and left of the fabric have to be right. And on top of it, even if you know how to wear one, the pleats will have to be laid out as meticulously as in wearing a saree, otherwise, the zari tends to get hidden away, and you could easily end up looking like an elephant who has entered a circus tent by mistake!
Back to today morning. I hopped on to a taxi, and rushed to complete what I had set out - which is, some exhilarating moments of divine Vedic chanting. As soon as I was done, I decided something that I have never done - to ride the Metro ( MRT), for my return trip back home. Just for the heck of it. I wanted to see people's reactions, on spotting " the odd one out" on the rails. Call it my own curiosity, or my answer to Arvind Kejriwal's attention grabbing antics, or what have you.
I was not disappointed. The local people scanned me from head to toe. Though none uttered a word, I could see the reactions in their eyes. Ranging from curiosity to amusement. For the fellow Indian riders, as expected, reactions ranged from happiness for some oldies ( their eyes seem to say " wow! Here comes a guy who dares to flaunt our tradition in public!"), to amusement, to sheer indignation (" desi ka izzat uthaarne aaya hai saala!"- which essentially means " he is out to discredit Indians, by wearing such outdated dresses in public. What a Shame!"). Some even looked at me as if I was a creature from another planet! An ET in a Panchakacham, as it were. ;)
I had wanted it just this way. A quiet but perverse enjoyment of the situation was running inside me. I wanted to be the cynosure, right or wrong, and I had clearly succeeded.
I stepped out of the train, and started walking in the hot sun. The kind of feeling that a Panchakacham gives, has to be felt. The only portion where you realize that there is a piece of clothing on you, is the waist. Below that, you would end up feeling as if there is no cloth on you at all. I mean, it gets as cool as that - quite literally. The more I wear, the more I realize how right our ancestors were, with the Panchakacham, at a time there were no ACs or fans to cool the body. Panchakacham, to me, is the perfect answer to keeping the body airy and ventilated, in the hot Indian summers. At this point, I am tempted to add " I guess it feels the same when the ladies wear the madisaar", but I am mindful of the " how do you know? Have you ever worn a madisaar? Do you have any idea of the difficulties we ladies face when wearing one?" type of torrential rantings, so I am staying away from that.
As I ambled towards home, an elderly couple walked passed me. The man must have been at least a couple of decades elder to me. But as he neared me, he folded his hands in a Namaste posture, and greeted me " Namaskaram, Panthulugaaru!" In Telugu, that means " salutations, Panditji!". I smiled back at him with a return "Namaste!", and got back home, before the sun could get the better of me.
Wow! In an instant, I had been "elevated" to a Pandtiji! I know very clearly in my mind, that I am not one. Nor do I deserve that respect, matter-of-factly. However, today's escapade reminded me of some time-tested tenets:
As the proverb goes, " ஆள் பாதி , ஆடை பாதி". Dress maketh a man. Whether one likes it or not, the first impression of the individual gets formed from the form factor, and that includes the dress.
It is very easy to misjudge people by prejudices arising from the dress that they wear. It is easy to misplace respect and adulation on people, merely because of their dress. In the same manner, it is easy to ignore, condemn or deride "ill-dressed" people. The worst scoundrel can be dressed nicely in a suit. (Or even in a Panchakacham!). Conversely, a gem of a person can be hidden in a simple kurta or cotton saree from Khadi. In either cases, the wrong opinion and prejudice can be formed in no time, merely based on external appearance. And the dress one wears, contributes. In a big way. And that includes the Panchakacham.
For the last couple of decades, for the nation, the Olympics have been an exercise in despair. A quadrennial quagmire for a billion souls. TV and media regularly drum up the mood into a crescendo, only to end in a whimper, come closing ceremony. Life then quietly gets back to normal - to cricket, that is. Deja vu.
Sindhu and Sakshi have, however, brought new brio to Rio. These girls have managed to avoid the white-wash blushes of the billion. They have salvaged some of the pride that the people like Shobha De had stomped upon.
Talking of Shobe De, shame on her! For her to have come down heavily upon the athletes, smacks of arrogance and frivolity. These athletes have put in more than their best foot forward, under extremely trying circumstances. A case in point - without any help or assistance from the government, Sindhu, now the badminton heroine of India, travelled 56 km one way, every day, to practice, and her coach Gopichand has vouched that she has not been late even on a single day, for practice. This shows the fire in the belly, and the commitment, and above all, that burning urge to do excel, for the sake of herself and for a nation of eternal hopefuls. Many of the athletes have done much more than was expected, given that total lack of any infrastructure in any corner of the country that could have possibily fostered an atmosphere of competitive athletics. If there is anything to be condemned, it is the apathy of the successive governments, the callousness of the sport ministry and sports body officials, and rampant corruption that has been derailing any attempts to improve our lot in the tracks ( and fields). Instead of targeting these maladies, Shobha had chosen to train her guns on the hapless athletes. Totally unbecoming of a senior socialite.
For a nation that goes overboard to produce engineers and doctors, and generally scorns at any attempt to encourage any sports zeal in our sons and daughters, the games will go on. The show will go on. We Indians drown ourselves in movies and cricket, to forget our harsh everyday realities. In such a situation, the five rings will continue to be elusive.
Uma, I did not want to waste time responding to what I feel is balderdash. I somehow I gathered myself to put a response. I am surprised how people rush in to misinterpret things so very easily, in the name of "thinking differently". Here are only a few pointers. I can talk about this for hours.Sorry, a rather long response.
I agree with Devdutt when he says " feminists assume that monastic faiths espouse non violence and are generally pacifist, and therefore are more feminist in approach". He is right in pointing to facts that are contrary to that assumption. The best live examples that I can think of are the Asian Countries of Japan, Korea and China, where Buddhism is the overwhelming faith, and perhaps no other country can be more male dominated that these societies.
I disagree with him when he says hermits gave rise to three ideas - celibacy, non-violence and purity. Hermits of yore, those who wrote the Upanishads, like Yagnyavalka, Kashyapa, Gautama etc... were all married, had progenies and yet were detached from wordly pleasures for most part of their lives. Hinduism does not lay down anything in strict. One can go directly from Brahmacharya to Sanyasa. Or one can go through the 4 varnashramas to reach sanayasa. Our history is full of both examples. I this his narrow view emnates from comparing with theological religions. Hinduism, in reality, is way to flexible, to be straight-jacketed into one line fo thinking. However, it is a different matter that some practitioners, over the times, have hijacked people's notions on these, and made them believe that there are only certain ways to do them. Again, many of these hermits fought with evil forces which had interrupted their duties as hermits. Examples are Vishwamitra, Parasurama, etc...
I also think his analysis of women alone being seen as temptations, is faulty. In Kamba Ramayanam, Kambar says " for a man, his demeanour, character etc... needs control.... for a woman, her eyes need control". The reason? Traditionally, Hinduism has always placed the well-being of the family, and by extension, the society, in the hands of the lady. For a man to go astray, a woman's mere gaze is ( normally) sufficient. Men have very little self-control in this matter, and this is pure animal behaviour. It is the woman who normally has much better self control in this matter, and the moment she loses it, the family loses out, and by extension, the society. Hence the puranic emphasis on male celibacy. Devdutt, in my opinion, is misinterpreting this whole thing. Talk of male celibacy does not denigrate the woman in any way. Quite the contrary. In my eyes, it places women on a pedastal reserved solely for them. For, women, by nature, tended to have a lot more self-restraint, and thereby controlled the societal values. Perverted MacCaulay system of education interpreted it as subjugation of women, which is totally wrong. It is not that women dont get "those" feelings of breaking the shackles, or go lawless, like most men do. It is just that nature has gifted them with much better self control. Some western societies of today, where women try to "compete" with men in recklessness, have paid for, with their overall family and societal environments destroyed. People have started living purely for themselves, instead of for a family or for the larger society. One may argue that in the race to keep self-control, women lost out many things, including their own happiness. My argument on that is that happiness is a conditioned state of mind. It can come from anywhere. If you are conditioned to think that happiness comes only from doing "reckless" things, or " being free", then anything else will be unacceptable. If you conditioned to think that happiness comes from living for the others, most notably your family, and if in that process you lose things like personal space and freedom, then that is where you feel the happiness. Devdutt's arguments unfortunately reflect the former thought process, and to me, that is trying to judge the Indian system through a Western prism.
By the way, it is not only women who are portrayed as objects of desire. Men have also been equally portrayed as objects of desire. Vishwamitra was an object of desire for Menaka ( even if for a brief while only). Amba, Ambika and Ambalika were after one man, a hermit, by the name of Dwaipayana. Sukhracharya's daughter lusted for a man, so madly, that she insisted on marrying him and her dad had to relent. Shiva was an object of desire for Meenakshi, who penanced to get married to him. When I say " object of desire" it does not necessarily have to be sexual in nature. I am willing to argue it out with anyone who says that the Gopikas' attraction to Krishna was purely platonic. There is a bit of Kama in that too... not in a deragatory sense, but purely by looking at Krishna as the only man - Purusha ( the rest of men and women mortals are considered women only, in that context, according to the scriptures).
Devdutt talks rubbish when he insinuates the Gita as a book incites violence , when he says " ....that some academicians argue this is Brahminical gobbledygook to justify violence.". Nothing is more absurd. If you need any more proof, look no further than a Russian Court ruling, responding to a plea 2 years ago, to ban the Gita on the grounds of inciting violence, clearly ruled that it is a totally wrong interpretation of the holy book, and dismissed that petition. Pls do a Google search if interested to read more about that case.
"Vegetarianism was meant to liberate the hermit from nature and culture. " This statement again shows his ignorance. It has got nothing to do with liberation from nature. Vegetarinsiam as a way of life , it is scientifically proven, enhances the DNA, and over generations, produces far superior progency. I challenge Devdutt to dispute this. That is why vengtarianism was prefered to being non-veg. Also, Hinduism, as a way of life, was against killing any. Even plants and trees were revered. There was a prescribed way ot eating vegetables and fruits. For example, the concept of Unchavrithi. Today, Unchavrithi is celebrated as a "function" of singing in the streets and earning alms. But that was not how things originated. Unchavriti was a custom where people ate only THOSE rice grains which were incapable of growing. ("broken rice"). Similarly with fruits. People never plucked fruits first off, but waited for them to fall off the trees, the natural way. In Tamil Nadu, we call maa, palaa and vaazhai as " mukkani" ( THE three fruits). Why? What is so special about these fruits? The speciality is that The mango and jackfruits, even after eating , left those seeds intact, and even if you dicard them in the open, will germinate. Banana does not need the fruit, to procreate. So, we really respected nature and the right to life, those good old days when the scriptures were written. Ahimsa was part of this, and Devdutt cannot deny that. It is a different matter that over time, things got perverted by people who interpreted them.
His funniest nonsense, in my opinion, is reserved for "purity". What the hell does he say? Is he saying that drinking, smoking, having unfettered sex etc is civil right, and that everyone HAS to accept them??? Nonsense. He argues that purification demands lead to untouchabiility. This is nothing but perverted thinking. Let me aska simple question. If the body does NOT need purification, then firstly why take bath, or have medicine when one falls sick? Furthermore, let me challenge Devdutt, or anyone who claims that demand for purity leads to untouchability. If that is really true, why did the western societies spend billions of dollars on eradicating leprosy? Let me pose a simple question. Let there be a Justin Bieber music show today, in a stadium packed with 10000 people. All dancing away happily. Let a leper walk in, and join the crowds in dancing just as happily. Let me see how many of them embrace him physically, happiliy!!!!!!! Utter crap.... Devdutt.... I expected had better concepts from you.... maybe you wrote this article in your sleep.
சின்ன வயதில் வானொலியில், காரைக்குடி கம்பன் விழாவின் ஒரு நேரடி ஒலிபரப்பில் கேட்டு ரசித்த ஒரு குறுங்கதையை இங்கு பகிர்கின்றேன்.
கம்பனுக்குக் தான் கவிப்பேரரசன் என்கிற செருக்கு எப்போதுமே உண்டு. அவன் ஆண்டவன் தவிர யாருக்கும் வணங்காதவன் . ஒரு முறை சோழ மன்னன் எவ்வளவு விண்ணப்பித்தும் மன்னனைப் புகழ்ந்து பாட மறுத்து விட்டான். தவிரவும், அவையில் மன்னன் பிரவேசிக்கும்போது எல்லோரும் மரியாதை நிமித்தம் எழுவது வழக்கம்- கம்பனைத் தவிர. இது மன்னனுக்கு பெரும் மன உளைச்சலைத் தந்தது. மன்னனால் மெல்லவும் முடியவில்லை, விழுங்கவும் முடியவில்லை. ஊண் உறக்கம் இன்றித் தவித்தான். இராணியால் இதை நிவர்த்தி செய்ய முடியவில்லை, ஆதலால் பொன்னி என்கின்ற மன்னனுக்குப் பிரியமான ஒரு தாசியை அழைத்து விஷயத்தைச் சொன்னாள். பொன்னியோ, " என்னிடம் விட்டு விடுங்கள், நான் பார்த்துக்கொள்கிறேன்" என்று சொல்லிவிட்டு, மன்னனிடம் சென்று " நாதா, கம்பனை எப்படி வழிக்கு கொண்டு வர வேண்டும் என்று எனக்குத் தெரியும். நீங்கள் நிம்மதியாக உண்டு ஓய்வெடுங்கள்", என்று சொல்லி விட்டு கம்பனை வீழ்த்த ஆயத்தமானாள்.
ஒரு நாள் கம்பன் கண்ணில் படும்படி அவள் வீதியில் வேண்டுமென்றே கீழே விழா, கம்பன் ஓடி வந்து அவளுக்கு உதவ, பொன்னி கம்பனைக் கடைக்கண் பார்வையால் கவர்ந்திட்டாள். கம்பனும் பொன்னியுடன் பொழுதை இனிது கழித்தான். பின்னர் அகம் மகிழ்ந்து " பொன்னி, நான் உன்னை மிகவும் மெச்சினேன் , உனக்கு ஏதாவது தர வேண்டும்போல் தோன்றுகிறது . என்ன வேண்டும், கேள்!" என்றான்.
பொன்னியோ ஒரு விஷமப் புன்வுருவலுடன் " எனக்கு வேறொன்றும் வேண்டாம். ஒரு ஓலையில் "தாசி பொன்னிக்கு கம்பன் அடிமை" என எழுதித்தாருங்கள்!" என்றாள். கம்பனும் அவ்வாறே செய்தான்.
மன்னனுக்கோ பெரு மகிழ்ச்சி. கம்பன் இனி தன் பாட்டுக்கு ஆடித்தான் ஆகவேண்டும் என்று கணக்கிட்டான். மறுநாள் அவை கூடியது. வழக்கம்போல் மன்னன் பிரவேசிக்க, எல்லோரும் எழ - கம்பன் மட்டும் ஒன்றுமே நடக்காததுபோல அமர்ந்திருந்தான். மன்னனுக்கோ சினம் சிரத்துக்கு ஏறியது. தாசியை கூப்பிட்டு அந்த ஓலையை படிக்குமாறு கட்டளையிட்டான்.
" தாசி பொன்னிக்கு கம்பன் அடிமை" என்கிற வாசகம் அவையில் ஆரவாரம் எழுப்பியது. எல்லோரும் திடுக்கிட்டனர். மன்னனோ கோபம் கொண்டு " கம்பனே , இது என்ன அசிங்கம்! இவ்வளவு பெரிய கவிஞர், ஆண்டவன் தவிர வேறு எவரையுமே பாக்களில் புனையாதவர், ஒரு தாசிக்கு அடிமையா?" எனக் கொக்கரித்தான்.
கம்பனோ, ஒன்றுமே நடக்காதது போல வெற்றிலையை மடித்து வாயிலிட்டுக்கொண்டான். ஒரு மந்திரி, ராஜாவிடம் காக்கை பிடிக்க எண்ணி, அந்த ஓலையை கம்பனிடம் காட்டி " இந்த கையெழுத்து உங்களுடையதுதானே?" என வினவ, கம்பம் " ஆம்! அதற்க்கென்ன?" என்றான், வெற்றிலையை மென்றுகொண்டே. மந்திரியோ " இப்படி பகிரங்கமாகப் பிரகடனப் படுத்த, உங்களுக்கு வெட்கமாய் இல்லையா?" எனக் கேட்டான்.
கம்பனோ சிரித்துக்கொண்டே , " இதில் வெட்கப்பட என்ன இருக்கிறது? உள்ளதைத்தானே உரைத்துள்ளேன்?" எனச் செப்பினான்.
" தாசி பொன்னிக்கு நீங்கள் அடிமையா?" என மறுபடியும் கேட்க , கம்பனும் ஆம் என உறுதி செய்ய , எல்லோருக்கும் கம்பனை கோபமுடன் பார்க்க, கம்பனோ, அவசரப்படாமல் வெற்றிலையை மென்று விழுங்கிவிட்டுத் தொண்டையைக் கனைத்துக்கொண்டு மெதுவாக சொன்னான்: " மன்னா, தமிழ் மிகவும் நுணுக்கமான மொழி. நன்கு கவனியுங்கள். நான் உள்ளதைத்தான் எழுதிக் கொடுத்துள்ளேன். தமிழில் "தாசி" என்பதற்கு " எல்லோரும் விரும்பத்தக்க" என்கிற பொருளும் உண்டு. "பொன்னி" என்பது கலைமகளுக்கு இன்னுமொறு பெயர். ஆக , " எல்லோரும் விரும்பத்தக்க சரஸ்வதிக்கு கம்பன் அடிமை" என்றுதான் எழுதித்தந்துள்ளேன் . இதில் என்ன தவறு கண்டார்கள்?" என எதிர்க் கேள்வி கேட்க, அவை முழுவதும் நிசப்தம் நிலவியது!!
தமிழின் இலக்கிய நயம் வட மொழியான சமஸ்க்ருதத்திற்குச் சமமானது. ஒவ்வொரு சொல்லுக்கும் பல அர்த்தங்கள் உண்டு. இந்த இலக்கிய நயத்தையும் ஆழத்தையும் அனுபவித்து மகிழ நிறைய கேட்க, படிக்க வேண்டும். கம்ப நயமே இவ்வளவு என்றால் , மற்ற நூல்களையும் காப்பியங்களையும் என் சொல்ல?
என் பார்வையில், இன்று தமிழ் மிகவும் நலிந்துவிட்டது. பள்ளியிலும் கல்லூரியிலும் தமிழ் பயின்ற தலைமுறையே தமிழைத் தவிர்க்கிறது. பின்னே, இந்த புதிய தலைமுறையை பழித்துப் புண்ணியமில்லைதான்.
வடமொழியும் வெள்ளையன் மொழியும் வாய் நுணியில் விளையாடுகின்றன. தப்பில்லைதான். பிழைப்புக்காகத் தேவைதான். ஆனால் உங்கள் முன்னே செந்தமிழ் என்னும் சொத்து சுவைக்க, சிறப்பிக்கக் காத்திருக்கிறது. முடியும்போதெல்லாம் தமிழில்த் திளையுங்கள். வார்த்தைகளின் வர்ணஜாலத்தை ரசியுங்கள்.
About 6 months back, I had called out that the markets could be on the way down, and my target was 6800. If it were to have broken down then 5500 could have been hit effortlessly.
Sure enough, the mkt went down to 6850 or so, but then has bounced back very strongly, from those critical support levels, and has been hitting 52-wk high , of late.
I am sure those of you who had stayed in the mkt or had trade for the short term, would have made great money in this period.
Where is the mkt headed from now on? Let us look at a few big factors:
1. Monsoon has done well so far. Reasonable good. As long as it does not flood the whole country, we should be in for record kharif harvest. Pulses remain a problem and will take long term mesaures to fix. So, with a decent monsoon season, the first worry is out of the way. Rural consumption should be decent enough.
2. Inflation continues to be well under control, and so, expect interest rates not to rise, for the next 3 to 6 months. This means, there will be enough interest from DIIs in the stock mkt.
3. Rupee is stable. Also, growth in other mkts has practically shut off. While Brazil mkt has risen spectularly ( much more than the Indian rally) , riding on the Olympics, their fundamentals continue to be shaky. China will take some time to digest their excess investments and clean up the balance sheets of their banks. So, there is hardly any interest there. The other mkts are practically going nowhere. Plus, money at near-zero interest rates is available in many developed markets, and if the exchange rate can eb held stable, then expect decent inflows from the, These factors, put together, will keep the FII interest in the Indian markets.
4. One potential risk is that historically, the election year in the USA has been a disaster for their stock mkts, and by deduction, the global stock mkts. If that happens , India wont be spared, either. But for that to happen, there is need for a trigger - economic , political or geopolitical. Until then chances are that the markets will rather go up than down.
5.Valuation-wise, based on 2016-17 earnings, the Indian markets are already into bubble territory in terms of valuation, with forward PE of more than 24 ( historical at 18-20) . But with liquidity governing the mkts now, I wont be surprised if the mkt goes up to a PE of even 30- until some geopolitical event pricks the balloon.
For long term investors, none of this should matter, as long as they are invested in long term stocks. Would I add to my positions now? No, I will wait for the mkt to correct.
For traders, I think in the absence of any " event", mkts are headed higher for the short term, until the balloon bursts. Stock specific traders could turn out to be sexy for the punters.