Saturday, October 29, 2016

The legacy of Barrack Obama

The Amercians have chosen to zero in on two of the most consummate disasters, as presidential nominees. The arc-lights are firmly on these two. One day, it is Trump playing his xenophobic xylophone. The other day, it is the FBI on the trail of Hillary. In all this melee, one man stands in relative obscurity.

Barrack Obama is quietly leaving some indelible imprints of his legacy on American history. The jury is still out there, on whether the first ever "black" President has done more good , or more harm, to the USA, and, by deduction, to the rest of the world. Of course, when Barrack formally lays dow office, the customary bouquets and brick-bats will follow. But, I am convinced that what Obama has contributed ( or failed to), deserves a slightly deeper look, in the context of the state of the Nation, when he had taken over.

Cut back to 2008. The world was on the verge of Economic implosion. Wall Street had become Wail Street. The USA gave unsolicited lessons to the whole world , on hitherto unheard-of lexicon-  Sub-prime, Mortgage-Backed-Securities, Credit Default Swap, Collateralized Debt Obligation, Countrywide Finance, AIG, Citibank, Lehman Bros, Bear Stearns, Credit Rating Agencies, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac,  Shadow Banking System, Bail-outs et al. The spill-over of Wall Street into Main Street and on to the World Street, was vicious. Economic armageddon sounded it's evil laughter, from not far away. Obama had inherited a monster, created by a misguided US economic model and policies. And, had promised to fix them all.

He may not have quite fixed them all. After all, decades of decadence could not have been hoped to be reversed in one, or even, two terms. There have been quite a few gaps. On the Economic and social fronts. Things could have been much better. On creation of jobs,  inflation, credit control, investment climate etc. Better care for the black welfare than was promised, better trade relations with China and he rest of the world, better diplomatic effectiveness on world stage etc.

But then, things could have been much worse off, as well. For, the mess that Obama found himself in, an Economic whirlpool was threatening to suck the USA, and the world. It was not easy, by any stretch of imagination. The malignancy in the economy had regressed to stage IV.

In that backdrop,  it would not be an over-statement to say that Obama has pulled off "Mission Impossible".  The means that he and the US Fed have adopted to fix the deep rooted issues and the resultant melt-down, may be the topic of discussion in the hallowed classrooms of Harvard, the media and amongst Economists for the foreseeable future. But, the fact remains that Obama has clearly succeeded in stemming the rot. Not just that. He has managed to restore a semblance of order in the financial markets of the world. Something, that is absolutely critical for continued peace, from Fiji to Finland.

And he has not stopped there. He has managed to rein in inflation, reversed the trend of job losses to one of job creation in the US, and has ensured that the US Economy has grown at an average of 1.5% to 2% during his tenure.

This news below, is his "crowing glory". The last quarterly GDP report before he hangs up his boots. He surely goes out, on a high, in this regard.

Things may yet unravel later. For, what Obama has done may be nothing more than bravery of the valiant Dutch boy, who plugged a dike with his frail fingers, to prevent flooding of a whole town, one stormy night. Just as the Dutch government took steps to build stronger dikes and fortify the town further, subsequently, the successive US governments and Presidents have their work cut out on the Economic front, as much as on other areas like Diplomacy, Trade, and the World Order etc.

But, I am sure that Barrack will be back in Illinois with an outward sense of satisfaction of making sure that the world did not unravel at one of the most trying times in modern history.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/us-advance-q3-gdp.html

Monday, October 17, 2016

My own Samsung Galaxy Note 7 jokes

Ajit ( The Hindi movie villain of yore): " Mere paas bandookh hai, bamb hai, rocket-launcher hai... tumhaare paas kay hai?"

Amitabh Bacchan : "Mere paas Note 7 hai".

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Worker, to the supervisor, in the granite quarry: " Sir, sorry. We cannot break any more rocks. We have run out of gelatine sticks".

Supervisor : " Dont worry, I have a spare Note 7".

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Two cave-men conversing:

1: " Oh man! Cant light up fire. We have run out of flint-stones."

2 : " Dont worry! I have a Note 7".

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Note 7 is the only device that is capable of authentic son-et-lumière (sound-and-light) shows

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ajit : "Raabart, iska pocket mein Note 7 daalkar udha do".

Robert : "Kyun boss?"

Ajit: " Usko 7 janam mere haaton hi marna hoga. Note kar lega, taaki bhool na jaaye"

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Bob Dylan

Bob Dylan has succeeded in dividing the world vertically. The jury still appears to be out there, assessing on whether this honour to be bestowed on him is appropriate enough. Interesting, I do not know of any big news on when his name figured in the list of nominations for the Nobel prize in literature.

I do realize that Bob has zillions of fans across the world. I do not wish to offend their sensibilities. I am not here to pass a judgement on whether he is the right choice for this this year's award , or not. However, I wonder if the standards set by the Nobel prize committee have been altered over time, for whatever reasons. I hope I am wrong.

As a general observation, Nobel prize awards have turned increasingly farcical over the years. I find that people who should have been in the list, do not figure- as yet. And I find people whose candidature is debatable, to put it mildly, walk away with the purse.

While it is well known that the selection criteria are defined, I wonder whether the committee sometimes hides behind technicalities of selection, in order to announce or denounce an individual or a group. For example, I know that a thousand explanations have been given on why a certain Mohandas Karamchand was not awarded the peace prize, but it is hard to digest any of them. For, when one applies the simple yardstick of the impact the man had had on 300 million people ( then) and the destiny of a nation, one finds it hard to ignore suspicions of ulterior motives, camouflaging as technicalities. In the same breath, Barrack Obama himself had subtly wondered why he was awarded one, in the first place, in his acceptance speech.

Coming to Bob Dylan, while his lyrics and music may be very popular with the masses, the question arises - can his lyrics stand on their own as time-tested poetry? I suspect not. My grouse is not Bob getting one per se, but others like Somerset Maugham, Leo Tolstoy, George Orwell, Robert Frost, Arthur Miller etc were decided not worthy of the prize. The big question then is - is Bob Dylan worthy of the prize, ahead of these literary greats?  Note that I have included only one non-English writer in that list. The Nobel is biased heavily in favour of English literature. Hardly a few non-English writers are awarded. I accept that as a matter of fact, instead of whining. If I were to include the plethora of non-English writers, then the list would be mind-boggling.

Also, questions have been raised on whether poetry, however brilliantly crafted, amounts to pure literature. My response to that, is that whether we like it or not, precedence has already been set, in the form of T S Eliot and our own Tagore, for Nobel prize in literature.

So, what is next? Chetan Bhagat being awarded the Grammy Awards?  ;) ;)



Saturday, October 8, 2016

2008 CRISIS

Sub-prime, Mortgage-Backed-Securities, Credit Default Swap, Collateralized Debt Obligation, Countrywide Finance, AIG, Citibank, Lehman Bros, Bear Stearns, Credit Rating Agencies, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac,  Shadow Banking System, Bail-outs....


OMG!!!!!   PLEASE PINCH ME!!!

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Where is Oil headed?

I look at the prognosis for oil from two very different sources, for the long term:

1. Baltic Dry Index. When I look at the long term chart for this, http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND , it is in a secular decline. In fact it is topping at the next level of resistance, meaning this will go down further ( purely technical view)

2. Stock Prices of OIL SERVICE PROVIDERS like Transocean (RIG) and Sclumberger (SLB). RIG' charts are languishing, long term, and the company continues to flouder in delivering OPERATIONAL profits. SLB is better positioned, chartwise, but again , has not gone anywhere.                      

Why are these important to me?

Baltic Dry is the key indicator of economic activity ( aka , a parallel for chinese production/ consumption engine) . When this starts stirring, expect an uptick in chinese oil consumption, leading to speculation in oil prices.

Oil Service companies do well operationally when rigging activity goes full steam. And that happens ahead of time. For example when oil companies feel that oil prices are headed north in 3 to 5 years' time, they start the prospecting now. The dumber amongst them do a catch up much later only to miss the bus and burn their fingers.

So, when RIG or SLB start delivering operationally , it means that demand for oil is being expected to increase.

I know these are highly counter-intuitive yardsticks, but this is what I follow.

Having said that, two factors at play, will decide oil prices, going forward.

1. There is an OPEC meeting in Nov, where it is widely expectd that they would announce production cuts. the reason for that is, with oil at close to 50 bucks now to the barrel, the OPEC members now have crossed the critical threshold, I believe, where they can afford to cut oil production and yet manage their fiscal balance with reduced receipts from oil sales. That cut in turn , will raise the oil price further, leading to better even better bargaining chips for OPEC. This is a vortex effect.

2. Any Geopolitical indicent of 9/11 magnitude.

Currently the biggest factor working AGAINST any real demand uptick for oil is the continuing slump of the Chinese economy, where it is widely expected that it would take years before the excess capacities created are absorbed and fresh capacities are added.                         Hanjin bankruptcy: Are South Korea's 'chaebols' in crisis? - BBC NewsThree of South Korea's biggest conglomerates, or chaebols, are having difficulties at the moment: Samsung, Lotte and Hanjin Shipping. Is there a connection?

 http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37295185

The bankruptcy of Koean shipmaker Hanjin is noteworthy... blamed purely on slowdown in global trade ( read: much lesser shipments of mines and ores from Australia and other places into China).

Need more proof? Here it is. One of the largest shipbuilders in China has slumped, by the own admission of Xinhua, China's mouthpiece

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-08/30/c_135645633.htm                      

Bottomline, I have reason to believe that it is possible to rig up the price of oil to 55 to 60 a barrel. Anything can happen. But the fundamentals in terms of demand and supply do not support any sustained oil price rise - at least not yet.

Again, the price of oil is rigged by hedge funds, and the public seldom gets know how much open positions they hold- especially on the SELL side  ;)

Monday, October 3, 2016

Insensitive pseudo-intellectuals

You are my neighbour. We are in bonhomie, because both of us love music and other fine arts. But there is no love lost between your brothers, and mine. To the point of going into each other's house, and indulging in brutal assault. To the point of losing lives.

In that situation, what are we expected to do? Stop interacting with each other until the violence and instigations stop? Or continue to play Mahjong, and pretend as if nothing happened?

Cut the chase. The latter is exactly what the communists of the country want. And a few in Lutyens' Delhi, and the media sharks want.

They want that we go and " talk to Pak". They insist that we should continue to extend our 56" shoulders in warm embraces, to the artists from ISISthan.

These armchair intellectuals want to continue to sip red wine, and extend red carpets to the men in green. While our jawan bretheren shed red blood over the Parvat.

Makes me wonder - do they even have any feeling for their own jawans being killed by these marauders? Do they even realise that the brothers of these artists are the ones who target our defense establishments and civilian gatherings, and kill our brothers at will? Do they even realize that here are some people, who sign up to brave the sweltering heat of the Thar , and cryogenic Siachen, just to protect them, so that they can sit in Airconditioned rooms of Delhi and Mumbai peacefully, and wax eloquent about tolerance? Or are they actually saying " I , the high tax-payer, have bought you, Mr. jawan, using my tax money. So, you better go out there and die, while I enjoy the film and music by the brothers of these terrorists. You are a mere coolie, my servant who is destined to die in the hands of Paki terrorists, not a fellow national who does the supreme sacrifice for my welfare".

How lower can Lutyens' Delhi get? How much more can Sitaram Yechuri stoop?
Disgusting.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

खुदा भी खुदा नहीं रहा



हमारे अफसाने  में  कुछ सादा नहीं रहा - मगर 
वक़्त के साथ बिछड़ गये, और वह वादा नहीं रहा।
बेकार में अश्कों का दामन मत बनाओ, सनम
इस दिल-ए -मायूस में अब वह इरादा नहीं रहा ।

बुज़ुरगों  की दुआएँ अब नाकाम रह गए हैं
अब मुझमें जीने का उन्स ज़्यादा नहीं रहा।

होटों पे जाम लगने से पहले नशा चढ़ गया है
यूँ लगता है, मैखाने का रास्ता सीधा नहीं रहा।

नींद खोकर रात की तलाश रात में भी करता हूँ
यूँ लगता है, दिन में अब आधा नहीं रहा।

तक़दीर का तमाशा कहूँ, या खुदा की बेबसी
बस, मेरे लिये  अब खुदा भी खुदा नहीं रहा।









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