Musings of a man who is constantly trying to give new perspectives to things we all seemingly know already.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
The other side of the Outsourcing coin
I distinctly remember my earlier visit to the same facilities of my employer about four years ago. My colleagues in the US had recommended me a hotel as the one to go for, since it was not too far away from the office, and, more importantly, was right opposite a huge mall, which housed some of the biggest names in US retailing – Sears, Circuit City, Best Buy, et al, not to mention the usual Abercrombie, Toys r Us, and the plethora of clothes shops. And not to forget, the many options for eating, including a massive outlet of The Cheesecake Factory. I am a sworn veggie, and, not surprising, subsistence on the veggie fare in the US has never been a problem.
My visit in 2005 was memorable for a few things – I was awed by the sheer size of my office campus – about 13 blocks, with a capacity of over 25000, and a few assembly units housed in, as well. The second was, my difficulty in getting myself lodged in this hotel of choice- the waitlist was significant, because Raleigh used to be a bustling centre for Technology and Research. The third was the bubbly crowds thronging the mall in the evenings- I used to enjoy the time I had there, hanging out with my colleagues, chatting away on office-nothings, while enjoying the cheesecakes.
Cut to August 2009. The first surprise came from the hotel. I was able to get accommodation without a whimper. “This is the school vacation time and so people may prefer to visit the sunny beaches instead of workplace”, I thought to myself. The second surprise was in store at JFK. Gone were the long lines in front of immigration. Sure, they had added more counters to make the traveler experience a little smoother. “The biometric scanning system has surely reduced the service time per entrant, plus the added counters have eased the pressures”, I told myself. I landed in Raleigh shortly, and, surprise of surprises, the hotel was just not crowded. “Is it the school vacation time that is causing the drop in occupancy?” I asked the hotel front desk – and got back a wry smile in return. I still did not quite comprehend the meaning of it then.
I was greeted in the office by empty parking lots. “The same school vacation time”, I consoled myself, and immersed myself in meetings. As I interacted with the local folks, I could clearly see desolation and fear in their mannerisms. A sense of déjà vu, as it were. I was told later, that the occupancy level of these company-owned premises is only about 30%. I could see the symptoms of something sinister, but could neither fathom it in full, nor the undercurrents of it. As it turned out later, not just my employer, but almost all employers in that area, as in many other areas in the country, have cut back on jobs, causing unprecedented levels of low-occupancy.
The usual gathering for supper turned out to be rather unusual. The colleagues turned in, as usual, and we took a quiet corner of the Cheesecake Factory outlet, chatting away to glory. But the usual humdrum in the restaurant was missing. The crowds clearly were thin. I asked my American colleagues what the matter was. The same wry smile, in return. One of them finally down the remnants of the Screwdriver in his glass, cleared his throat, and told me something that was heart-wrenching. He said “blame it all on Outsourcing”. That is when reality hit me on the face. The Cheesecake stopped being cheesy from that moment. I was putting up a brave front in front of my colleagues, and kind of brushed aside that point, but deep inside me, I was badly shaken. I went through the motions of supper, got back into the cozy confines of my hotel bed, and was deep in contemplation.
Clearly, America is a nation in transition, but to me, in the path towards terminal decline. The 70s and 80s saw manufacturing jobs being put on those huge transcontinental cargo ships to Asia, never to return. “Motor city” (Detroit) soon turned into “city of rusted steel”. Manufacturing was all but wiped off the face of the Land Of Opportunities, to the point that even toothpicks were imported. America had then consoled itself in “moving up the value chain” by focusing on the Services Sector. But that did not last long, either. What started as a trickle of I.T. programming outsourcing, had soon turned into a deluge of outsourcing everything from simple programming, to backend office processes, to HR to R&D… this deluge has clearly inundated Raleigh and the other cities with jobless families, struggling to make ends meet. People have resorted to literally selling their family silver. “For sale” boards in front of what once were cozy homes for happy families are now ubiquitous.
The many I.T parks and the economic prosperity that one now witnesses in India, to me, are clearly at the expense of the US and other developed western Countries. For every house that has risen in value of a house in Jayanagar, Bangalore, from a few lakhs of Rupees not so long ago, I felt that one house in Raleigh (and other towns) is going up on distress sale, as it were.
The typical confused Indian in me suddenly woke up. “Is this not Adharma (injustice)? Is my country’s prosperity not directly linked with the downfall of another nation? Am I not prospering by pulling houses down on the other side of the globe?” The socialist within me explained “ well, the British did exactly this to India for centuries, plunging the country into penury from which we are struggling to extricate ourselves, and maybe this is pay-back time- after all the Chinese showed no such compunctions when manufacturing jobs were transplanted into China”. The sham of a scientist within me woke up and said “well, this is typical Darwinian theory – survival of the fittest. So don’t be too bothered, because, tomorrow, someone else will overpower you when your fitness level goes down, just as is happening to the US now”. The economist in me tried to pacify “the law of Diminishing marginal Utility will make sure that India will be shown its right place on the economic ladder soon, unless it learns to move up the value chain fast”.
Is what we are doing as a nation right or wrong? Are we justified in (metaphorically speaking) snatching some else’s job and prospering at the expense of their well-being? What will happen to those families who had built their lives around dreams of a more prosperous future, only to see them crumble like the Twin Towers, right in the front their eyes? Is this righteous, or is this plain Adharma? Why does one nation have to prosper at the expense of the other? Isn’t the world big enough to offer opportunities to all, so that one does not have to step on another’s toes? I have been struggling to find an answer for this, ever since my return, a month ago.
Somewhere, back in my mind, the echo of my mother’s feeble recitation of a Sanskrit prayer mildly reverberates,
“Kayena vacha manasendriyairva
Buddhyatmana va prakrite swabhavath
Karoomi yadyad sakalam parasmai
Narayanayeti samarpayami” , which broadly translates to
“Whatever I do with my mind, body, speech or with other senses of my body,
Or with my intellect or with my innate natural tendencies”
I offer everything to Narayana (God).
©Dilip Subramanian
Monday, August 3, 2009
Cash for Clunkers
I arrived in the US yesterday on a week's visit on work.
I am hearing a lot of "exciting" things about this Cash For Clunkers program has apparently has been hugely popular.
Crudely put, this is what I understand of the program. if your car gives less than 18 miles per Gallon ( God knows why the Yankees stick to such 18th century units of measurement, when the rest of the world has moved on), then you could buy a new "Quasi Green" car which will give more mileage, and , in the process , get upto $4500 off the bill... that is almost 25% to 15% rebate on the car, depending upon the model.... the biggest to gain is Ford so far, and the Govt is serisouly debating extending this program, to give a second chance to the two candidates on death-bed - GM and Chevy.
Back to the basics. Who gains? Those guys who indulged in the gas-guzzling SUVs and Hummers of yore, when the going was good, at the expense of the those who thought it more prodent to go in for more fuel efficient cars. And who foots the bill? All tax-payers, collectively.
Net of it, you collect tax money from all and sundry, including the 'responsible" and "rckless" guys, and put that money in the hands of those " irresponsible" guys...
Much like the "bail-outs" which really set the precedent for all bad behaviour to be encouraged.
This, to me, is communism gone awry!!!
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Cathode Ray tube and Copper tube
Friday, July 3, 2009
US National debt
Grave reading....http://www.cnbc.com/id/31723265
Of particular interest is this snippet below....The odometer-style "debt clock" near Times Square — put in place in 1989 whenthe debt was a mere $2.7 trillion — ran out of numbers and had to be shut downwhen the debt surged past $10 trillion in 2008. The clock has since beenrefurbished so higher numbers fit.
Markets update
Federer
But I am fervently hoping that this poetry in motion continues for eternity.....
Match
......MATCH OF THE AANDIES !!!!!!!!!!(Andippandarams!)
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Bull top and Bear bottom
- 20,000 is a huge psychological barrier by any standards, and can only sustain if there is sustained incremental earnings potential beyond that. By the time the Sensex got there, the PE was about 28, and about 22 based on FY09 projections, and in my opinion, there was not much steam left from thereon. I had pulled out all my money from the market the day the index hit 20000. Of course, it went on to briefly cross 22000, before that major bear market fall all the way to 7600.
- On the rationale of how much low can it get, I had based them on my observations then, but now I am able to prove it with charts from Yahoo. I am attaching a few as samples - the Hangseng, Nikkei, Straits Times, Shanghai Composite and, of course, the Sensex. As can be clearly seen, from approximately the top of the bull market, the bear grip has lasted for all the way to about 1/3rd of the peak value, give and take a few. This, I have observed in the previous down cycles in the late ninetees, as well as the early ninetees, has always been consistent. Now, thanks to the power of the Net , and thanks to Yahoo, I have been able to prove it with charts.
Where do the markets go from hereon?
Your guess is as good as mine!
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Markets
I do not know about the rest of us, but I clearly missed the recent market
boom. My calculations were proven totally wrong.. I expected a hung parliament,
like most of us... but the people decided otherwise.
I had exited stocks before the elections... I did a quick calculation... had I
persisted, my portfolio as of yesterday would have given me about 92%...
instead I only cashed in with about 60%... clear loss of opportunity.
However, I am not complaining.
1.60% returns over six months is good by any standards.
2. It is very difficult to time the market.
3. Had the results gone the way I had predicted, then the reurns could have
dwindled... imagine 15% drop in a day... which happened in 2004 Oct..
Going forward, from the looks of it, almost all stocks are back to their high
levels. there is very little upside left, given the earnings estimates for FY
2010. Market is at a PE of about 20 right now... close to the 21000 levels we
saw in May 2008...
Hence I have no choice but to wait for a correction in order to get back in. If
I get in now, then I should be prepared to wait for another 3 years at the
least, to get decent returns. They are predicting that the Sensex would go all
the way up to 19500 this year.. I am not sure about that, given the decadence
in the US $ and the pursuant global crisis 2.0 that is building up... but
anything is possible in India!!
Effective CMs
Bihar. See URL: below.
http://www.ndtv.com/news/blogs/a_fine_balance/bihar_transformed.php
Amongst other popular CMs, I hear very good coverage about Biju Patnaik, Sheila
Dixit and of course Narendra Modi.
These people have shown that it is possible to get votes not just by partisan
politics, but by good governan
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Slumdog controversy
Monday, April 13, 2009
Patek Philippe
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JAGDISHPUR: Former pradhan of Chandosi gram sabha Kanhaiya Baksh Singh had an unusual assignment on Sunday, April 12 — he escorted Priyanka
Singh (53) sums it up with an old Awadhi saying, "Kathi ki bili bhi gungunati hai (even a cat in the house of a katha singer knows how to hum)." Today, he is a proud man, having helped in the launch of the fourth generation of Gandhis in the hurly-burly of heartland politics. "It came as a bolt from the blue," he told TOI. Resting at home, Singh was summoned to Munshiganj rest house for "an important business". There, the old family loyalist was given charge of Rehan and Maira, who were raring to go "canvassing for mama" all on their own, with only a maid and security personnel for company. The team left the resthouse at 10 in the morning and for the next two-and-a-half hours toured adjacent villages of Chandoki, Ramshahpur and Hardoia. "The little ones are born charmers," said Singh, who excitedly described how "the two took to meeting people like fish takes to water". They needed no tutoring. "Gandhi parivar ke bachcho ko bhala kya samjhane ki zaroorat hai (where's the need to train a Gandhi kid)," he said. Both made friends easily with village children, shaking hands and distributing badges with pictures of Rahul and Sonia. The strategy to woo the elderly was different. Clad in red kurta and white pyjama, little Rehan hit it off with them by bending down and touching their feet without any prompting, parting with a crisp one-liner: "Rahul mama ko zaroor vote dijiye (please vote for Uncle Rahul)." Like a consummate politician, Rehan, while walking the lanes of Hardoia, a Dalit dominated area, stopped by an ailing old man on a string bed in his veranda. He inched closer, looked at the man and asked, "How are you uncle?" before repeating the all-important message. The children even walked into huts to meet and chat up veiled women who were reluctant to come out in presence of village seniors. Priyanka told the media on Monday that the kids were out campaigning for their Mamaji and had even provided her with valuable feedback on problems like power cuts facing the constituency. "I thought let them have a first-hand feel of life..." said a beaming Priyanka. |
NSA
India Stock market update April 09
Indian stock markets again. I have made investments progressively over this period in small quantities every month.
As of yesterday, Some holdings have shown negative , some as high as 250% . my porftolio shows a 50% profit in this depressed market overall.I am exiting the market again this week, and will wait till the elections are over. By then we will also get a confirmation on whether this "turnaround" is for real or not. If, by then the market has gone up another 10 ro 20%, so it be, but I want to
play it safe, since I already have 50% in my pocket.
This is the first time I am experimenting with this "slow and steady" investment
model, over an extended period, and it seems to work well.
For those of you who intend entering the market, but have not done so yet, my
suggestions would be:
1. If you are going directly to the market through online trading or your
broker, buy select scrips in small quantities- remember, this should be with a 3
to 5 year horizon at the least.
2. Fix a target of return that you would desire, and do not get greedy- just
pull your hard earned money out before the hell breaks loose again. You can
choose to leave the Profits portion only, till as long as you want.
3. In terms of timing, you can continue to buy in small quantities,
notwithsantding the ups and downs in the market. The other alternative is to
wait for the election results to be out. If it is a hung parilament, then
chances are that the market could crash by 5 to 10% on the day the results are
out, and that would be the ideal day to BUY. Keep you money ready for that day,
if you do believe that it will be a hung parliament.
4. If you are buying Mutual funds, keep buying in small quantities in select
funds only. Don't spread too thin. Look for funds with the best historical
returns, and don't bother too much on annual charges as long as performance is
good. The other approach would be, if you have money earmarked for retirement,
then wait for a market correction, and put in the money in big chunks and forget
it for the short/ medium term. Analyze the Fund Manager's pedigree before you
jump in. Remember - any mutual fund is only as good as the individual fund
manager. I personally prefer Sanjay Duggal of HSBC India Growth Fund.
5. In the climate, gold could be a good long term investment, given, the
impending Dollar collapse, so if you planning for buying jewellery for your
family, then I would suggest waiting a bit for gold to correct ( I think Gold is
overbought, technically) and then put some of your money to keep your family
happy!!
The "Night Watchman"
Singh endorses Rahul as PM
Dharmendra Jore, Hindustan Times
Mumbai, April 14, 2009
First Published: 02:32 IST(14/4/2009)
Last Updated: 02:33 IST(14/4/2009)
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the Congress’ prime ministerial candidate in the Lok Sabha polls, said on Monday that Rahul Gandhi was fit for the country’s top job. His statement comes a day after Rahul’s sister Priyanka Vadra said she wanted her brother to become the prime minister one day.
“Power must pass on to young politicians and Rahul has all qualities and abilities to be the prime minister,” Singh said at a press conference during his one-day visit to Mumbai.
He also lambasted BJP’s PM-aspirant LK Advani, saying he had “the unique ability to combine strength in speech with weakness in action”.
Polity and decency
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Frauds in the US and corrective actions
I certainly do not say that America is a special embodiment of badness... to me, it is just another nation with it’s pluses and minuses. Some see the pluses outweighing the minuses, and some like me, see the other way, that is all. For people landing up straight in the USA after India, and virtually settling down there, America is the best place on earth. But for those who have lived elsewhere before or after living in America, that place is just another place, maybe better or worse than their other country experiences, depending upoin where they have lived. And for me, who has been travelling to so many countries over the last 15 years or so, America is still one of the better countries, but clearly there is no halo around it’s back, as far as I can see.
To me, the politicians are the same everywhere, including the USA. They all try to make money wherever possible, with varying degrees of probity. The Americans by and large seem to firmly believe in the 11th commandment “THOU SHALT NOT GET CAUGHT”. That is all...
- 1. Did the US Govt not know before that money was being channelized into Swiss banks, ever before? SO what were these people doing all along, without asking for the details? Becuase, they are now cornered.
- 2. Did the SEC and Fed not know the over-leveraging through exotic financial risks and the dangers they posed? Read the book “GREENSPAN’S FRAUD” by our own Ravi Batra if you have any doubts on why the US Govt kept quiet all along in spite of knowing all these wrong-doings. http://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Fraud-Decades-Policies-Undermined/dp/1403968594 . The fact is, the Govt is now cornered, and are posing as if they want to bring in some semblance of order. If you want to believe in them, it is your call.
- 3. Did the SEC not know the consequences of shorting Banking stocks, a la Bear Stearns? Then why did they allow a run on the bank stocks right till the end of the year, save for one brief 15 days in between? After they were caught. They clamped down on it, with partial success.
- 4. Similarly, does the US Govt not know the dangers of funding short term cash requirements with long term debts like 30 year T-Bills? Of course they do. So then why are they continuing it? You can answer it for yourself.
Nett of it, they continue to do all wrong, knowing the fall-outs fully well, until the hell breaks loose. And then they take corrective action. Much like the policeman, who knows the dangers of not patrolling the area properly, resulting in thieves coming in. And then the policeman taking action to catch him... if you want to repose your faith in this policeman, you are free to do so.
Talk about patriotism – you should visit countries like Korea, Japan and China, they are a lot more patriotic than the Americans. The Japanese actually demonstrate it. Of late, you can see many goods Made in China in Japanese stores, but I am told by my local friends that they don’t sell well enough, and that the Japanese prefer locally made goods. It may well be a combination of stringent quality requirements of the Japs, as well as a liberal dose of patriotism. On the other hand, I wonder how many Americans will stop buying cheap Chinese goods from WalMart, and switch over to USA-made goods ( if at all there is anything left), in the name of patriotism... I would love to see sales of goods from outside dwindle in the USA, before affirming the patriotism at the individual level.
The trouble with the Americans in general is, they really do not have much stakes on the ground, both historically and in the present. To me, the Americans are relatively more polite than, say Europeans, because they never had to bear the brunt of foreign influence, culturally or through invasions. They seem to be more patriotic because their patriotism has never been seriously tested before... this economica downturn is a good chance, and let us how many of them raise in unison against foreign goods and adopt locally manufactured goods.
Historically, the Americans have never been invaded by anyone in any significant way – neither by the Mexicans nor by the Canadians... the closest was the Pearl Harbour episode... or, you can say, the 9/11 episode... hence they found it expedient to have a nice big defence industry, and supply arms to all warring countries in the world, and quite often indulging in moral policing of the world. On the contrary, the Europeans have fought war after war amongst themselves through the Renaissance period, right up to the Georgian war last year. History will prove this...this naturally makes them more pugnacious. No wonder Europeans, especially the continental variety, are considered more impolite. Incidentally the same is the case with South India... we Southies pride ourselves in being a Sadhvik society unlike the North where people are seen as uncouth and rough.... bear in mind that the Jats, the Punjabis, the Rajputs etc have borne the brunt of 1000s of years of invasion starting from Alexander in the BC period, right up to Kasab on 26/11 .... whereas the Southies have had relatively long periods of peace.
Having said all this, I agree with you the once caught, the US does take swift and affirmative action ( eg. Bernie Madoff) or Enron... whereas in India, the laws are so damn shallow that anyone can get away with it... I am amused that Shibu Soren continues to be a Central minister inspite of the whole world knowing that he is a criminal, simply because the provisions of the law have been used to manipulate the evidences and get him out comfortably.
Let me also make a controversial statement here. At the risk of getting beaten up, I would venture to say that the birth of India on Aug 15th 1947 was based on corruption. We paid for peace of India, by splitting ourselves, and creating Pakistan from out of us. We even strike deals with God, none lesser. We quite often pray “ God, give me this, and I will offer you xyz as Neivedhyam or Nerthi Kadan” !!! As if God is waiting to strike this deal with us !!!! It is in the culture... today the Indians, especially the Hindus who pride so much in their rich past, are prepared to compromise on anything for the sake of materialism. We keep harping on our rich past and do not realize that in today’s context of the world we are a nobody.
To me, the Indian society of today is surely on a path of degeneration and decandence, and if we don’t mend our ways quickly enough, we will go the way of Chinese – economically successfully but socially doomed!!!
Monday, March 23, 2009
Dialgoues people speak
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Varun Gandhi
- Varun is pitching himself to take advantage of the fact that after Advani there is no one at the national stage to grab the leadership fo the BJP. The fact that he happens to be from the "Gandhi" brand may help him... (remember, there is hell a lot of opposition within the BJP for Modi, notwithstanding his stature in Gujarat and I can't think of any other national contendor within the BJP at present.) This may be Varun's personal calculation to pitchfork into national limelight overnight. This strategy ahs been tried and tested in the past - people like Advani and Modi have catapulted into focus using such emotive issues.
- Varun's calculation may well be that this round of elections may see a hung parliament, leading to elections again in a few months... by which time he may be out of jail, if at all he is thown in, in time for fighting out the next round more effectively. Much like Vaiko's recent rhetoric on the Tamil's issue yesterday.
- The other possibility may be that he has the blessings of the BJP leadership- more like the BJP shooting from his shoulders.. at the moment, the BJP leadership and party are in tatters when it comes to election preparedness, and this may well end up being a unifieid force. The BJP may need a "new face" to restart the rhetoric, and Varun's ambitions may have fit in the bill well.
- The BJP may be trying to use Varun as a countervailing force for Modi's rise - typical Indira-Gandhi- style politics.
- This may be a ploy of the RSS - use Varun;s ambitions to send a message to Advani that the "ram" cause cannot simply be buried under the carpet.
- The BJP may genuinely be looking for a "unifying" casue other than Rama temple, which is, by now a stale issue in electoral politics, to get all the fringe groups fight together. The use of Varun for this purpose will also, incidentally, help them dent the "family hegemony" of the Gandhi family, notably the rise of the Gen-next Gandhi, Rahul.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Indian economy is losing it's sheen
Friday, February 27, 2009
More pain
spare a thought for Europe.
I strongly suspect that the EU will cease to have one unified
Currency, the Euro over the next 3 to 5 years... for all you know you
may see the Franc, the Lira and the Mark back in vogue.
Reason? The Eurozone has many Eastern European countries which are on
the verge of soverign default. Iceland has already defaulted and is a
basket case.Ukraine is on the verge of it. A few Baltic nations too..
Not to forget the "strong" currency areas like Portugal and Italy. The
Italian Lira was akin to the Indonesian Rupiah in value before it got
"value added" through the "Euro"ization exercise.
At that time, the calcluation of the "developed" Euro zone countries
was that they would get a new "local" market to export their wares
without much trade barriers, and would get cheap "sweatshops" to
manufacture things for their consumption.
That same calculation has now turned topsy turvy. What were considered
as assets are now fast becoming liabilities, in the sense that the
rich nations within EU will now have to carry the "baggage" of the
poorer cousins. Financial survival or filial love? Who will win? Take
your pick!!!
State Bank of USA
When Citigroup was formed about a decade ago, I remember the then chariman " admitting" on TV that he felt like a hero.
Now Uncle Sam, by buying close to 40% of Citibank's equity, is converting this Wall Street icon into THE STATE BANK OF USA!!! I wonder who ever created the USP for Citi " The Citi Never Sleeps"!! How ever can they?
The Popeye-biceps of Wall Street suddenly seem to have gone weak. The latest GDP drop by -6.2% is precipitous, and outright scary. Everyone, including die-hard optimists have conceded that this is the worst recession they are witnessing after the Great Depression. The only question now remaining is - is this going to be worse than the 1930s?
At this rate, you will soon see Navarthna Pubic Sector Undertakings (PUSs) in the USA - Citi, Bank of America, Freddie Mac, Fannie May, Bear Stearns, AIG, IndyMac.... at this rate, Navarathnas will make way for Sahasra ratnas .... except that the price of ratnas by then would ahve crashed, hehe!!
Stalin surely must be turning in his grave!!!
Monday, February 23, 2009
The meaning of Kamakshi
Believe it or not
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நரசிம்மா, வரு, பரம பிதா!
நரசிம்மா, வரு, பரம பிதா! சுத்த சிந்தை சிறப்பு நிதா! இசைதருமோ, உனது கடைசின் போதா? இருள் பொலிக்கும் எங்கள் விருட்ச நீயே! அறிவொளி ஈசனே, ஆதிபுரு...
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This is one of the most beautiful Marathi Abhangs I have ever listened to. Ranjani and Gayathri simply take me to a different plane when ...
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Krishna has "plagiaried" this verse from the Mahanarayanopanishad. अणोरणीयान् महतो महीयानात्मा गुहायां निहितोSस्य जन्तो:। तमक...
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As someone who has delved a bit into various Indian languages, I am of the firm conviction that language is not just a few words of expre...