Gulf of Mexico

I am amazed at the number of oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. This picture was taken from one of the Forex blogs, and is as of Aug 2008.

I salute the resilience of the Oil Industry , given that the Gulf is "infested" with hurricanes of varying intensity, virtually every summer. To keep the thirsty gas guzzler SUVs and Hummers is no mean task, huh!!

Meritocrasy in Democracy?

All of us have been led into believing that the US stands, by and large, for meritocracy.

There used to be a joke about Giani Zail Singh. Before he became the President of India , he visited the US to meet Raegan, and they could not converse, since Zail Singh knew only Punjabi and Raegan, only English. The story goes that Raegan vowed to teach English to the genial Sardar, but ended up learning Punjabi!


The recent events in the US Presidential nominations and the street fights that preceeded it, made me wonder if the US is learning too fast from India. Look at the facts below and make your own conclusions:

1. There was initially so much hoopla in the media on whether to get a Blakc or a Woman as the Democratic party candidate... merit took the back seat, and all the public spats reminded me of Jayalalitha vs Karunandhi spats in the TamilNadu politics ( woman vs untouchable)...
2. Finally Obama elbowed his way, and the national press went ga-ga over a "hisotric" nomination of a Black Presidential candidate ( first in some 250 years after the Americas were founded) , again , talk was much less about his capability ( or lack of it) than the colour of his epiderm and mesoderm.
3. Obama was more criticized for his rather yougnage, and lack of Congressional experience... again no talk of merit or what his capabilties were. And how did he respond? By picking a 72 year Oldie (Biden), whom people hardly knew... for his age, his "experience" and for his oratorial skills... dont even bother asking about his credentials or capability... for a minute I thought Theepori Arumugam or Kaaduvetti Guru would have perfectly fitted the bill ( great orators, lot of experience and aged....)... Merit? What merit?
4. Just when the Democrats thought they got the trump card, McCain perhaps glanced through recent Indian politics, saw the Pratibha Patil episode, and decided to bowl a Googly ( or Doosra, should I say?). Not to be left far behind, he wanted to erase the accusation of old age being against him, he stuck two mangoes with one stone, by announcing Palin ass his running mate. One she is 44 years young only, and two, she is a woman? And how did she start off her Acceptance speech? By roaring that "women in the US are not finished yet!!" Clearly she was targetting the women voters ( 50% plus)... whether this gimmic will help erase the legacy(???) Georgie and help the Republicans back into the White house remains to be seen, but again, merit has clearly been buried under 10 feet of snow in Alaska!!
5. An even funnier observation - the media misses no chance to mention " Obama is a devout Christian... goes to xyz church regularly" "McCain is a devout Baptist" "Hiilary is a devout Methodist" ... all thesse are clear gimmics to corner the votes of the beleiver voters. Compare this what is happening in India - the BJP tries to woo Hindus, all the non -BJP parties go head over heels to establish their "secualar" credentials , a move amied clearly at cornering the Muslim and other minority votes... or Ramadoss and Co. clear take the names of Vanniyars. etc etc... clear market segmentation in the name of religion and caste in India, is matched one to one in the US by both the politicians and the media... and all along we thought the US democracy was a lot mature, and believed in meritocracy!!!!

All this goes to prove a few things:

1. Politicians are the same everywhere.
2. Formal Western Education ( or lack of it) is no guarantee for rational thinking and voting... people will still vote becuasde " she is a woman" or "he is a devout Christian" or " he is a white" or " or "he is from the Afro American community" or " he is from the xyz caste" or " she is from the abc town" etc etc... merit is only secondary or even tertiary.
3. Getting votes on factors other than merit has been the norm throughout the world, not just an expception in India. The next time you read a western magazine referring to the "abominable casteist politics" in India, dont shy to ask " what about the other countries?"

What the Q2 08 US GDP Numbers mean

The increase in second quarter GDP was widely expected, but not to the extent of 3.3% .... mainly due to the SOCIALISTIC DOLES ( aka, Stimulus cheques or "tax rebates").
But go beyond just the effect of the Stimulus cheques, and you will see the fluff in the numbers.
1. Major portion of the increased GDP is attributed to increased Exports.... more specifically, the drop of the value of the Greenback... which has dipped from 1.48 to 1.60 over the 2nd qtr... about 7% or so. Today's report in MarketWatch.com corroborates this... the Tech sector is in for a rough ride in earnings, due to the unexpected reversal in the Dolar's fortunes upwards now.. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/stronger-dollar-may-take-wind/story.aspx?guid=%7BBF5D0F4E%2D7F4D%2D4853%2D8EC9%2D8AEAFD54BFA0%7D
2. Exports picked up due to drop in Dollar ... a reasonable estimation, but now with the pull back in $$ parity, that edge is now gone...
3. Going forward, the consensus among Economists is that the GDP iss expected to come down , but not crash... the effect of stilumus cheque will wane, plus the appreciation on $$$ value. Add to it, the exacerbating Euro Zone economies, which are falling off the cliff now. In fact the recent sstrength in the Dollar is partially due to increased exportss , but majorly due to drop in Euro Zone prospects. This will continue.
4. A major worry is posssible recession in Japan in this quarter... this will mean slowing down of the Asian Economies... already China is "cooling off" to about 9% growth, and is expected to come down further. India reported 7.9% yesterday, as against an earleir estimate of 8.5%... what is will mean, are two things... short term rally of the Dollar ( wont help the US economy in any way), and slowing exports... this double whammy will result in the GDP slowing down more significantly in Q3 and Q4.
As for recession in the US, the official figures dont suggest a recession alright, but most economists agree wholeheartedly that it already feelss like recession... consumer spending is down over the last 8 quarters, housing is collapsing like a pack of cards, credit is tightening... all these dont bode well.
5. The average American is so stuck with plastic money ( credit Card). There was another report in CNBC last week of a crisis looming in the Credit Card ssegments. Read the articles below... http://www.researchrecap.com/index.php/2008/03/27/warning-signs-seen-in-rising-credit-card-delinquencies/
http://www.domain-b.com/finance/banks/20080813_unsecured_credit.html
To me, the Americans have exhausted all forms of SECURED CREDIT ( Housing, Stocks and Bonds etc.) and are now turning to Credit Cards as a last resort... if this sustains, then one can safely expect to see lesser number of cars zipping on the highways!!

Cheers... Dilip

Shanghai Maglev

The Maglev train in Shanghai, connects the City ( though not the centre) to the Airport iss an engineering marvel.



























It ocvers a distance of about 50 km in roughly 7 minutes ! Built by the Germans, it has not been very popular due to the cost and the lead into the city.


I travelled in it in 2004 . The Chinese Govt is trying to extend this route now, to increase the acceptance.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Maglev_Train

http://www.smtdc.com/en/

Murudeshwara

http://www.karnatakatourism.org/sites/des_west_murudeshwar.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murudeshwara

I had the fortune to vissit Murudeshwara Beach in Dec 2006.

This pristine beach-town on the Kanara Coast of Western India captivated me. The beach is one of the best, by far, that I have seen in any country so far. It was surprisingly clean and well kept. There are several lodges where one can stay for about Rs.500 a night and have a lovely sea-view room.

The Murudeshwara Templae is an ancient one, and was being renovated when I had visited.

Also, there is a huge statue of Krishna in the rath of Arjuna, as in the Bhagawath Gita, not to mention the mostrous form of Shiva.

To me, this beach is as good ass any other beach in Malaysia or Thailand.

I wonder how many Indians even know about it's existence. I think that with the new found riches, Indians right now seem to be more obssessed with visiting Phuket and Pattaya with their families ( sic) than go to "mundane" beaches like Murudeshwara. God bless us!

Modern Hindu Temples

For someone who has vissited quite a few Hindu temples outside of India, I find the architecture of most of them very fascination. Perhaps it is a reflection of the changing times. Perhaps we need to take change by our stride and get moving. Perhaps even welcome change with a PurnaKumbham ( or red carpet, should I say?).

However, I am trying to find some answers for things that I am unable to simply explain.

My rudimentary knowledge of the Agama Shastras, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agama_(text)) , that ancient Hindu set of codes, that included the science of buildings, especially temples, amongst many other things, stipulates that

1. there shall be a pond or lake close to the temple where people can bathe/ wash their feet before going in.
2. There shall NOT be any Shauchalayam ( Toilet) within the temple precincts.
3. The main Diety shall be surrounded by other dieties in a scientific manner, as shall befit the location and the Dieties.

Now let us look at the above, in today's context. Given the extreme space constraints, it is impractical to continue to have ponds and lakes, especially near the newer temples being built. Even if we do construct them, it is next to impossible to see water in those ponds 365 days in the year. And even if they do have water, it idiotic to try and stop people from abusing the temple pnod water ( for eg. one can see people washing trucks and cars in these ponds , in the smaller villages in Thanjavur District in India, known for this magnificent and ancient temples). As for the larger cities, the less said, the better.

Today, practically every "modern temple" ( built within the last 50 years or so), has a toilet within the temple precincts - for the "convenience" of the devotees. I personally wrench my face when I see a toilet therein. To me, it is plain disgusting. The arguement of some of my friends on this is - in today's world people live in far flung places, as opposed congregation around the temple in olden days, and therefore they need this convenience. Fine. But why dont temple managements build these toilets OUTSIDE the precincts, rather than building them inside, and spoiling the ambience, in the process?

As for the third, given the space constraints, the modern temples find all types of dieties being scatteered in whatever little space that is available- again a complusion of the times perhaps, but falling short clearly, on aesthetic and devotional appeal. One can even find "Shiva-Vishnu" temples within the same compound - something that was unthinkable a few centuries ago... I wonder what the Agama Shastras prescribe, when it comes to this!! So much so for Integration !!!!

Capitalism model

This week’s turmoil in the US Financial industry, Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) included, has thrown new light on the kind of capitalism that is being followed. It makes me wonder where the world, and Uncle Sam in particular, are headed towards, economically speaking. The collapse of Indy Mac, a US Bank, is symptomatic of the malaise that has been affecting the US Financial markets, and is an ideal fodder for the socialistic turkeys.

For those amongst us who do not know them, FNM stands for The Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) or Fannie Mae in short, and FRE stands for Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation ("FHLMC") or Freddie Mac in short.

Both of them are GSE or Govt. sponsored enterprises. Along with other GSEs, they buy mortgages on the secondary market (Banks and Housing companies like Countrywide Finance), pool them, and sell them as mortgage-backed securities to investors on the open market. This secondary mortgage market increases the supply of money available for mortgages lending, and increases the money available for new home purchases.

These companies were created in the 70s, and were meant to be stand-alone commercial. Over the years, these companies have become the backbone of the American housing dream, accumulating about $5.5 trillion worth of housing debt between them. That is, roughly about 40% of the $13.7 trillion GDP of the US in 2007 !!!

Due to the housing market meltdown, the mortgages they had bought, especially the subprime ones, have cllapsed in value. They now need to raise capital, to put themselves afloat, prompting the US govt to come out with “bold measures” to prop them up, over the weekend. Reason? Treasury Secretary Paulson very well knows that people’s hard earned 401K money is at stake, and any possible collapse of these “icons” could lead to a quick implosion and seizure of the great American engine – Financial markets. The results could well be cataclysmic, perhaps even worse than the Great Depression.

Fair enough, one would say? Come to think of it…two commercial orgs. were created back in the 70s with the intent of managing housing mortgages and providing guarantees on housing mortgages( much like Lloyds of London… a sort of reinsurance, to put it crudely) They were expressly meant to stand on their own feet. One of the hall-marks of capitalism is that companies are allowed to fail if the business model is not sustainable. Only in Socialist economies does one find government intervention… so then, in this case, whatever happened to “free market economy”? After all, everyone was lauding the great American innovations and the ever “novel and innovative” financial products that these companies churned out all these years. Something that kept the great American juggernaut moving all these years. When things were going up, the corporations were allowed to take the profits and distribute to “shareholders” and pay fancy CEO packages to run them.

Why then when things turn sour, the tax-payer is expected to pitch in and help out? Remember, there are only 3 ways that the likes of FNM or FRE can get out of the hole they are in:

Govt opens the “discount window” of credit … tax payers money being used up here.
Govt steps in with “equity participation” … again tax payer’s money
Govt buys out the private players by paying them cash, takes over the companies’ assets and liabilities and runs them on it’s own… this is either with tax payers money or simply by printing more $$$$$ !


In other words, the US Govt all along let these “financial wizards” come up with fancy products, to which credit rating agencies like S&P and Moody’s coolly looked the other way. Banking companies continued to provide loans based on inflated market values of properties, and FNM and FRE backed them up. Seemed fine, as things were Northbound. But when things turned sour, the Govt decides to use taxpayer money to bail out the wrongdoings of these corporates. So much so, that it is wiedly expected that shareholders will now demand that the Govt take over the Operations of FNM and FRE and run them…

The most amusing part is- taking over and running ( for a different reason, though) is what Hugo Chavez did exactly, last year to the big oil firms in Venezuela… so did the Russians… so did Indira Gandhi in the 70s in India, to the Banks… in “Socialist” parlance , this is called Nationalisation !!! Something that was frowned upon by Uncle Sam… “ goes against the very grain of free market economy”… “ companies should be allowed to fail”… etc etc…. the Fed and the Treasury are now made to eat humble dollars ( thanks to food prices, the humble pie remains humble no more!!)

To me, America is on the throes of Capitalist cross-roads. The signs on all four directions, unfortunately, are, rather ominously, pointing to anything but Financial Nirvana!!! Bertie would be tempted to quip, " Ah, Jeeves! Nowhere to hide would be right phrase".