Mrythyunjaya Manthram's real meaning

त्रियम्बकं यजा महे सुघन्धिं पुष्टि वर्धनं

उर्वारुकं इव बन्धनान म्र्युथ्रोयोर मुक्षीय मामृथात

Thriyambakam Yajamahe Suganthim Pushtivardhanam
Urvaaru kamiva Bandhanan Mruthyor Muksheeya Maamruthath

The Mruthyunjaya Mantram is commonly miscontrued, as the name itself (Mruthyu-Jaya) suggests, to win over Death. Far from the truth. In the Mantram, there is a referernce to Urvaaru ( Sanskrit word for CUCUMBER).

The cucumber is seldom plucked by force from the plant. Any such cucumber forced out is quite bitter. Those cucumbers that are ripe usually fall off themselves and are usually collected for consumption. They are the cool and tasty ones.

The prayer indicates- just like the Cucumber usually comes out on it's own from the plant, and not forcibly plucked, the death for the individual should also come naturally, and not be untimely - in other words, this prayer is only for saving from ApaMrthyu or untimely death, and not from Death itself.

As the saying goes, the only two certain things in life are Death and Taxes!!

Perils of a non-market economy

Today's article in the media of China bad-mouthing the USA on Quantitative easing 2 (QE2 for short), is interesting, but not surprising.

Interesting, because it tells you where Gold and , by deduction, other materials prices are headed , courtesy the imminent fall in value of the by-now much maligned Greenback.

Not surprising, because, China seems to be expressing a sense of deja-vu. Half a trillion plus of extra money in circulation at near-zero-percent interest rates, is likely to see flight of capital into speculative pastures in Asia and other "investment destinations" , further emaciating the US$ value, not to mention the higher inflation due to rising import costs to a vastly devalued $$. This could well have a double whammy effect of lower consumption down the road, and adverse increase in exchange rate of the Renmimbi, throwing cheap Chinese sweatshops into a tailspin in terms of pricing and competitiveness, and quite possibly resulting in loss of jobs and closing down of factories. This, in turn, could even lead to social unrest in the worst case scenario, and derail, at least temporarily, any dreams of China making it big in short time.

But then, if the Chinese growth story had been groomed on a dose of free-market capitalism, they would have been used to the fact of hiring and firing, opening and closing down of business in the same vein, and would have learnt to take it as a fact of life and move on. But here is a growth story largely built in Government largesse and initiatives, and looking up to the Govt for every policy move and hand holding.

Free market capitalism, after all, does have it's merits, even if it is not the panacea for all the world's ills.

Ustad Rashid khan performs Megh

Senility and Sensibility

Senility and sensibility

After a long time, I had the chance to meet my grandmother. She is 90 years old, still walking around a bit, with a walking stick for help, and taking of her bare necessities. I keep quipping to her that in terms of health, she is better compared to her five daughters, all aged between 55 and 74 ( my mother is third in the pecking order), and of course, that these five siblings are comparatively better off in terms of health compared to the next generation ( including yours truly), and so on.

This is no secret. The older generations did a lot of hard physical work, ate and slept well, and kept their wants and needs to be minimum ( most probably out of lack of choice), and given their lifestyle in the villages, naturally tended to have better health than the corresponding generations. But one thing that struck me on the head was – it was not just the physical toughness that kept them going. They were mental martinets. They had the ability to face adversity and stand up to it in all confidence and composure. The biggest bane of the current generation (and worsening through into the next) is that most of lack the mental tenacity to face up to the rough when the situation demands. Most of us tend to wilt. This lack of psychological stamina also tells upon the physical health, big time. This is why you find people popping pills at the drop of a hat for the smallest nag, or rush to a doctor for the slightest rise in the body temperature. “Don’t take headaches lightly” – goes our mental conditioning.

When it comes to GenNext, they are even more unfortunate, in that they neither get to see their parents display that tenacity required to face the vicissitudes of life with equanimity, nor their grand parents in action – most of us, after all, have adopted the Nuclear family as the de-facto lifestyle model, thus depriving the children of the warmth and moral support of the grandparents.

My grandma, in the meanwhile, looks at me, with ever fading eyesight, and murmurs faintly “I do not know how long God wants me to undergo this torture. I have been suffering from severe pain all over the body, am finding it increasingly difficult to live… when will God take me back?” … clearly one of those moments in life when one does not know how to react….

Shree

One can’t find a better language than Sanskrit to convey the precise message, through the most apt choice of words. Not for nothing is Sanskrit quite often called the language of the Gods (and perhaps that is the reason that humans have stopped using it in daily life!).

Take the word Shree, for example. It is a wonderful example of how intrinsically a language is interwoven with the culture of the people using it, and how futile it is, to separate the language from the culture.

Firstly, it is common knowledge that a man in India is often given the title of Shri (and a woman is given a title of Shrimathi). Ever wondered why? The word Shree actually denoted his better half. Simply because, in the Indian psyche, no man is complete without the woman. To him, she is the source of positive energy, inspiration and a vehicle for a complete living. To underscore this point, even Gods are given this title . “ Shree Radha Samedha Shree Krishna” or “Sri Rama” is the way we call the Gods.

Secondly, the word Shree also denotes Wealth or Treasure or an Asset. In good old days, when an Indian woman got married, she used to get her fair share of her ancestral wealth as “Shree Dhanam”. This was not a token gift, but a real subdivision of ancestral property (either from her forefathers or from her own parents), that she got to take with her, when she entered her new home. This word “Shree Dhanam”, over time, morphed into the word “Seedhanam” in Tamil, started getting abused by one and all, as Dowry, and all it’s accompanied trials and tribulations. Incidentally, I believe that this is the reason why women were not entitled to a fair share of the ancestral wealth at the time of division – simply because her fair share had already been given away at the time of her marriage. It is a different matter that, over time, this practice started getting abused, forcing the Government to eventually to step into the living room, and force a fair division through law. This is yet another of those lovely concepts, in my view, which could have worked very well, had it not been for the perversions and greed that crept into it over time.

So, in essence, “Shree” denoted either a woman in a positive sense, or, better, wealth or asset.

But then, as I said at the opening, Sanskrit packs so much punch in every word. That brings me to the third interpretation. Shree also denotes – hold your breath – poison. Or in a more colloquial sense, something that is really bad or could potentially destroys everything around it. Case in point? The name Shrikantan, given to Lord Shiva, after he swallowed the poison that emanated from the Ocean of Milk. “Kantam” in Sanskrit means the neck, and Shri, poison. So Srikantan means one who has or holds poison in his neck.

Now comes the tricky part. One can easily take three interpretations on a stand-alone basis and move on. But I firmly believe that this is where the cultural aspect comes in. Try and loosely combine the three literal meanings – woman, asset poison, as above, and you may get the plot. To me, this word also denotes that a woman can be a a real asset and a source of uplift for the man, or, if not used properly, can be the source of his destruction. As in the Tamil proverb, Aavadhum Pennale… azhivadhum pennalae”… which means whatever happens, good or bad, is always because of a woman.

In this context, an amusing story often narrated by the Tamil orator Suki Sivam comes to my mind. Two Sadhus were in deep contemplation in the Himalayas. At long last, one of them broke the silence and asked the other – “how did you end up as a Sadhu?” The second Sadhu heaved a big sigh, cleared his throat, and started his story, of how we was madly in love with a woman, and how she initially reciprocated it, but finally settled for someone else in marriage, ditching him in the process, and how, out of disillusionment in life ( because of love failure) he took to Sanyasam. The first one listened to all this in rapt attention, and felt for him. Slowly, they picked up a conversation, exchanging their nativities and lineage. That was when the second Sadhu asked” OK, I told you my story. Now tell me – how did you end up as a Sadhu”? To which, the first Sadhu looked at him intently, and said “ I was the unfortunate one who married that woman!”

Thus, this one word Shree tells me that, that contrary to the propaganda that women in the Indian society always played second fiddle to the men, women in those good old days had all the respect and exalted position in the family, and by deduction, in the society. It also tells me how a woman can be a boon and a bane to a man at the same time. It also tells me how a well-conducted woman is viewed as an asset in the family and for society, and if not, a liability or even poison.

How much more can one pack in a single word, folks?

IPL Terminologies

What they don't tell you in IPL sponsorships ( much like what they don’t teach you at Harvard). All imaginary

DLF Maximum - really denotes the amount of time you have to wait after booking an apartment with them

Citi Moment of Success - really denotes their success in palming off those billions of losses into the taxpayer kitty via a US Govt bailout...

Karbonn Kamaal catch - really means their success in finding yet another scape goat to buy one of their phones

MaxMobile Timeout - really denotes what their Network will do to you when you are right in the middle of the most important telephonic conversation of your life!!!

Why did God create everything?

Most religions of the world tell us how the world and all living beings were created. However, there is hardly any explanation ( from my limited knowledge) on why God created the Universe, the World and all living beings.

I have heard that according to Christianity ( I believe it is in the Genesis), there is a mention on why/ how light was born. “And God said, Let there be light: and there was light.” Apparently, the light was made before either Sun or Moon was created: therefore we must not attribute that to the creatures that are God's instruments, which only belong to God.

Hinduism takes a similar approach to explaining it. The Mandukyopanishad takes a shot at explaining the why part. According to Chapter 1 verse 7,

“As the spider sends forth and draws in its thread, as the herbs and plants sprout from the earth, as hair grows on the head and the body of a living man—so does everything in the universe arise from the Imperishable.”

The moment the word Creation is mentioned, we tend to think of God as being separate from the creation, as if He is a pot-maker, collecting mud and making pots from it. This verse above from the Mundakopanishad completely denies this scenario- that the Creator is separate from the Created. The Created, much like the web, are part and parcel of the spider ( The Brahmam).

In the above, anaology, one may argue that the spider weaves the web for it’s personal gratification ( and hence the suggestion that God’s creations too are for similar reasons). However the second analogy of the herbs and plants, to me, seeks to fortify the argument that there was, after all, no real purpose behind God’s creations, and that the act of creation itself is as a result of his “Lilas” or , crudely put, “playfulness”. The sprouting of herbs and plants on earth is without motive and devoid of any specific reasons. Now, to counter any possible argument that the Brahmam or the Supreme is inert or lifeless, perhaps the third analogy of hair growing out of the living man is given- signifying a Conscious Living, Vital personality- full of positive energy.

A better analogy, in my opinion, was given by Suki Sivam in one of his discourses. He describes how a child brings out his toy box, takes some play things to outside the house, plays till as long as he feels like, and in a manner he feels like, and the moment he thinks he has had enough, he takes them back into the house. Can anyone ascribe any reasons for the child brandishing his wares in the first place? Or the way he played? O rthe duration? Nothing but whimsical. Suki Sivam agrues that God’s creations are like the child’s play – no motives can really be ascribed.

Suki Sivam goes one step further to argue that it is pointless to delve into why God created the Universe and the living things, and in particular, mankind, as if to answer the question “why was I born?” in the first place. He mentions that instead of spending on the why part, we just need to acknowledge the fact that we all are here, along with all of God’s other creations, and , instead, focus on what we need to do till the time we all are on this earth. Makes common sense, doesn’t it?

The iPigs are coming

This is the age of i. Anything from iPods to iPads, everything now-a-days is christened with an appendage “i” . Perhaps it connotes the EGO of the self , or the self-centric approach to life that the Human Race has taken to, in the 21^st century, and coincides well with the technology mania that has gripped much of the 21^st century.

I decided to fall in line. After all, “i” pervades all, and “i” am no exception. The result , is iPigs – a rip-off, if you will, from the clichéd acronym. No, I am not manufacturing ham as yet. And I am still keeping my hands off Farmville (that contraption for time-pass in am even larger contraption for time-pass Facebook).

iPigs, in my fantasy, are the five European countries , which could ultimately contribute to the demise of the Euro as a Unifying currency in the European Union. Switzerland, Denmark and a handful of other countries were wise to keep their hands off the Euro, while a few other Big Brothers bit the bullet in the late nineties, and now are busy licking their economic wounds. The cause of the wounds? iPigs, of course.

Ireland, Portugal, Italy (to a lesser extent), Greece and Spain constitute the iPigs. In my opinion, these never deserved a strong currency like the Euro, in the first place. Everyone knows the value of the Lira before Italy embraced the Euro. Or, for that matter, the Escudo in Portugal. If ever you visit these countries, the disparity is there for all to see. Germany, France and the other Big Brothers are well and truly ahead of the pack in terms of material prosperity of the people. This is aptly backed by economic data.

Case in point – exports from Germany, in 2009 are estimated to be only a fraction lower than that of China, in US$ terms. Contrast that with Greece, which runs a budget deficit of close to 14% of GDP. Clearly shows that it does not produce enough to qualify to be in the same Industrial league as its more illustrious cousins across the Adriatic Sea. In normal times, the IMF would have swooped in and branded Greece a Banana Republic by now. But then we are not living in normal times! The pressure on IMF from the USA and Euro Zone, to desist from such “unwarranted” branding is palpable.

I strongly suspect that the Euro as a single currency may not see the light of the next decade.

Everyone is calling out the fall of the US$. But it continues to defy everyone. In my opinion, that is not because of any inherent strength in the US economy or the dollar itself, but the TINA factor ( there is no alternative). If people have to pull the rug from under the Dollar’s feet, where do they then park their funds? The Yuan? Chairman Mao will surely be turning in his grave. Gold? Bretton Woods made sure that gold will not take tha spot any more. The British Pound? That currency’s strength is history now. The Yen? Of late, the Yen is the punter’s paradise, being used ( and abused) for carry-trade. And Japan is a declining economy, and I do not see the Yen taking over. That leaves it to the Euro… hmmm, think of the Portuguese and Greek currency becoming the de facto reserve currency. I am sure the world is yet to come to such a pass.

At the risk of being snubbed, I stick my neck out and predict two things:

• Strong chance that the Euro may not survive as a single currency of the EU for too long, given these vast economic disparities.
• I suspect that the Deutsche Mark, in such a scenario, may well make a comeback, and with a bang.

Eurozone decline

On my recent visit to Europe, I had observed something that was unprecended. Something similar to what I had seen in Australia in the late 90s and early 2000s. During my past visits to Europe, I had observed that all things at boutiques and super-markets were horrendously expensive on a dollar-on-dollar basis, compared to the rest of the world. But, most of the articles were manufactured somewhere in the Eurozone, and things had just started flowing in from Eastern Europe. Chinese goods were few and far in between.

Things have turned topsy-turvy since then. The prices remain as high as ever. The supply side is the shocker, though. The percentage of Chinese-made goods has increased dramatically. This is shocking, because, I found the same cheap goods that we find in other parts of the world, strewn all over the pavement shops, as well as supermarkets, in Europe, and to me, that goes against the grain of the classical European psyche of a quality-consicous population. Even more shocking is the amount of fake goods being peddled on the pavements and pavement shops, much to the detriment of the branded goods companies.

To me, Europe may be undergoing what the USA underwent starting the end-70s – compromise on quality and focus on cost management. Who does that approach benefit in general? The “entrepreneurs” in Europe, of course. They are able to source goods a fraction of what they used to pay for earlier, and still maintain the same price points – meaning bountiful profits in the short term. The Chinese manufacturers are, of course, happy with the copius exports that will keep their factories humming.

What are the ramifications in the long run, of this trend, apart from the apparent compromise in quality of goods? Firstly, local manufacturing will suffer significantly lower outputs, and even large scale closures. However, many of the EU countries have a solcialist fabric, and firing workers or closing down factories is not as easy as in the USA. This would precipitate a crisis with the European business owners, who will face a double-whammy of falling output and high fixed costs with no flexibility. They may eventually lobby and get the Governments to absorb this unreasonable cost of doing business. But then, who ultimately bears the cost of all this? The poor tax payer, who already pays upwards of 50% at peak income tax rates, in many EU countries.

Secondly, if the Govt blinks, and allows retrenchments ( which in any case wont be easy), then job losses will mean purchasing power of the people will come down significantly, like what is happening in the USA today.

In short, this is likely to lead Europe to a USA-like situation, in the future. As of now, job losses are not as significant as they are in the USA ( with the possible exception of Germany), but for how long can the hold off?

To me, this puts the question of the Euro Zone in future, as an economic bloc.

Investments in the Indian markets- 2010

Guys, I sometime back, I had mentioned that I started entering the indian
markets, post election results May 2009. Since then, I have invested in
roughly about 90 different stocks, with an everage return of about 40%. Nothing
great, considering the fact that the Sensex then was about 14500 or so.
Marginally better than the index rate of return, but nothing earth-shattering.
Some stocks have risen very modestly and some have been multi-baggers, but
overall, quite a muted performance. And I am not unhappy with it. Reason? - I
had exited the market just before the elections, expecting yet another hung
parliament. The people proved me wrong ( no thanks for that), but by the time I
quit the market, I had booked quite decent gains, since Oct 09. Remember, I was
practically out of the market from Aug-2008 till Oct 2009, since I believed that
valuations had then hit the roof.

Cut back to Jan 2010. The market currently trades at a FY 10 PE of 20+,
indicating that upside potential is limited. On the other hand, with the
impending meltdown 2.0 of the US Financial system ( God know when and how much
that will impact), the downside risks in the shorter run appear to be high. I
am not yet pulling my money out of the market, since I see free money, derieved
from near-zero interest rate funds in the US and Euro zones - what is commonly
referrred to as carry trade- continuing to drive the Asian markets higher.
Remember, other Asian markets have given even better returns over 2009 than the
indian market. The trick now, is to time the exit and wait for yet another
round of correction.

My recommendation for those of you who think they have missed the current run is
- WAIT for the correction, and then get in. If you dont want to wait, then the
next best alternative is - invest regularly in small and equal amounts every
months, and ride the ups and downs, with a view to staying in the market for the
long haul.

On the sectors, I had written in this forum in Oct 2008 about my contrarian
positions that I was then taking in SUGAR sector, since I believed that it was a
cyclical business. My sugar portfolio has given my close to 300% returns since
then.

If there is one sector that I see as contrarian right now, it is REALTY sector.
But I am not willing to thrown in my hat just yet. Reason? The impending
interest rate hike, which I expect to take place between March and June. That
will dampen activity in the sector even more. The other industry that will be
affected by interest rate hike is the two-wheeler biz. The car makers are
realtively more immune to it.

Sectors to watch out for :

1. Banking , Auto and Realty - without these three industries showing good
growth, there can be no India Growth Story.

2. Cement - has excellent potential with infrastructure gaining importance , but
I expect a glut starting 2H 2010 with all new capacities expected in 2009 coming
on streaming ( due to delays) this year.

3. Steel - grossly over-rated . There is a glut in world steel production, and
the Chinese are cutting down on further investments in Steel factories. Without
the American consumer growing in the real sense of it, there can be no growth in
commodities.

4. Sugar - has more or less had it's run. Expect heavy political noises to bring
down the prices. Add to it, Brazil is expecting a good crop this year, and that
will help stabilize prices.

5. Power - invest only if you have the appetite to wait for 5 years. Returns
wont be immediate.

6. infrastructure - has had it's run. Upside will be selectively good. Pick the
right companies to invest, and stay invested for the long term.

7. FMCG, Pharma - I am never a fan of these over-hyped industries.

8. IT Inudustry - virtually none.


Any specific stock picks for me? Short-term - NONE ( infact exit the market).

Long term - if I were to invest today for the long haul, here are a few picks -

1. Axis Bank - has the best potential among private sector banks in terms of
growth . Be aware of impending interest rate hikes, and expected increases in
NPAs ( write-offs) across the sector.
Sate Bank of India - as long as Indian Government transactions continue to
happen through SBI, expect it to do very well.

2. Crompton Greaves - I expect this to become an Indian MNC over time. Has the
management expertise, and the vision for it. Over-priced right now - wait for
corrections.

3. L&T and Reliance - the usual suspects . There can be no India growth story
without these.

4. BEML and BHEL - strong and steady orderbooks in their respective fields.
Strong execution capabilities. Plus possible further divestment.

5. Shree Cements - Extremely strong balance sheet. Strong growth of over 28%
compounded YTY. One for the cement industry. Expect short term pricing pressures
due to impending glut.

6. Renuka Sugars - strong managment, diversification into Brazil in a big way.
Risks - sugar is close to peaking, if not yet already there.

There are a few other small-cap stocks that I am risking my personal bet on.
Either turn-around cases, or companies with good order visibility and
comparatively low PE even today. They are far riskier though.

I have shared with you, my actions so far, and my thoughts on possible picks.
These are purely mime, and in no way constitute any recommendations for you.
Please do you own homework before deciding what is best for you.


Have fun, investing ( and punting) in 2010!

Cheers... Dilip

Food and mankind

We are living in jet age, where the name of the game is swiftness. Everything is in the fast lane - including food. Many ancient cultures had strongly believed that the secret to mankind's well-being lay in the kind of food being consumed and the way it is to be consumed. Hinduism strongly advocates that the main cause of health problems is not lack of food but conflict within the body due to "incompatible" food.

Today's fast world seems to have thrown all age-old and tested food practices away. One of the main requirements of food- freshness , has been compromised for the sake of "convenience" ... courtesy the refrigerator at home, and deep-freeze devices in shops and super-markets. No one has apparently questioned the wisdom of storing foodstuff in plastic containers, and the kind of chemical reactions plastic may undergo with such food, and their consequences. Cling-wrap plastic clings to all kinds of fruits, vegetables and ready-to-eat food closer and tighter than the eager girl clinging to her boyfriend in the Metro station. We all know the almost foregone consequence of those two love-lost souls clinging, but what about cling-wrap on food? No one knows how a strong ingredient like turmeric can react to plastic when stored in plastic bottles and sachets.

Is this the price we all have to pay for being "modern"? Does leading a fast life necessarily mean that we compromise on our health by artificially creating conflict in the body through "contaminated" food?

Is this natural part of human evolution? Or is Kalki on His way here sooner rather than later?