AIG has dropped 60% in share value overnight. I, like a brave soldier, have bought AIG Oct CALL options, my guesss is tha the Fed, that super Investment Banker, will ultimately do something to bail out AIG.... they may not risk yet another failure on Wall Street.
This is no breast-beating exercise, but in my Aug 07 post, I had predicted the troubles that lay ahead for the Insurance sector. It is now turning out to be true indeed. God knows who else is on the run now... the gossip mills in Wall Street point to Morgan Stanley and Goldman being next in line, but I believe they are well hedged and sounder than the others who have failed.
The fundamental question though- all the Mandarins in Wall Street and Washington have so far maintained that the Economic Fundamentals arew Sound... on what basis, may I ask? Lehman, for example had $690B of debts ( and 680B in "assets" to back them up... assets that had been pawned multiple times over, in the name of "derviatives" and "structured products"). If Lehman can have this big a hole, what about the other biggies? And if we add up all of these biggies' holes, what Economic Fundamentalss are we talking about?
Musings of a man who is constantly trying to give new perspectives to things we all seemingly know already.
Monday, September 15, 2008
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