Match

What do you call today's semi-finals between Andy Murray and Andy Roddick?
















......MATCH OF THE AANDIES !!!!!!!!!!(Andippandarams!)

Bull top and Bear bottom

I have been clsoely following the indices of some countries, and based on empirical evidence, when the Indian Sensex hit 20,000 about 1 1/2 years ago, I had called it the market top, and also had predicted that if and when a correction comes, the Sensex may hit 8000 at the minimum...

I was proved dead right in Oct 2008, when the Sensex hit 7600, and has since recovered to dizzy levels, much like the other markets.

Many people had asked me how I called this out. Let me explain my rationale.

1. 20,000 is a huge psychological barrier by any standards, and can only sustain if there is sustained incremental earnings potential beyond that. By the time the Sensex got there, the PE was about 28, and about 22 based on FY09 projections, and in my opinion, there was not much steam left from thereon. I had pulled out all my money from the market the day the index hit 20000. Of course, it went on to briefly cross 22000, before that major bear market fall all the way to 7600.


2. On the rationale of how much low can it get, I had based them on my observations then, but now I am able to prove it with charts from Yahoo. I am attaching a few as samples - the Hangseng, Nikkei, Straits Times, Shanghai Composite and, of course, the Sensex. As can be clearly seen, from approximately the top of the bull market, the bear grip has lasted for all the way to about 1/3rd of the peak value, give and take a few. This, I have observed in the previous down cycles in the late ninetees, as well as the early ninetees, has always been consistent. Now, thanks to the power of the Net , and thanks to Yahoo, I have been able to prove it with charts.

Where do the markets go from hereon?

Your guess is as good as mine!

Markets

 I have been a bit busy traveling. Have not written a while.

I do not know about the rest of us, but I clearly missed the recent market
boom. My calculations were proven totally wrong.. I expected a hung parliament,
like most of us... but the people decided otherwise.

I had exited stocks before the elections... I did a quick calculation... had I
persisted, my portfolio as of yesterday would have given me about 92%... 
instead I only cashed in with about 60%... clear loss of opportunity.

However, I am not complaining.

1.60% returns over six months is good by any standards.
2. It is very difficult to time the market.
3. Had the results gone the way I had predicted, then the reurns could have
dwindled... imagine 15% drop in a day... which happened in 2004 Oct..


Going forward, from the looks of it, almost all stocks are back to their high
levels. there is very little upside left, given the earnings estimates for FY
2010. Market is at a PE of about 20 right now... close to the 21000 levels we
saw in May 2008...

Hence I have no choice but to wait for a correction in order to get back in. If
I get in now, then I should be prepared to wait for another 3 years at the
least, to get decent returns. They are predicting that the Sensex would go all
the way up to 19500 this year.. I am not sure about that, given the decadence
in the US $ and the pursuant global crisis 2.0 that is building up... but
anything is possible in India!!

Effective CMs

I am hearing a lot about the good work Nitish Kumar has been doing in
Bihar. See URL: below.

http://www.ndtv.com/news/blogs/a_fine_balance/bihar_transformed.php


Amongst other popular CMs, I hear very good coverage about Biju Patnaik, Sheila
Dixit and of course Narendra Modi.

These people have shown that it is possible to get votes not just by partisan
politics, but by good governan

Slumdog controversy

When India used to be a land of plenty, culturally we genuinely belived in living a simple life, and as a rule, the soceity was against aggrandizement and overt wealth building. This was at a time when India was one of the world's wealthiest countries, centuries ago ( remember all the invasions by the Mughals, Ghazni and Alendar to plunder the wealth of the country?) Slowly this gave way to a select few within the society accumulating all the wealth through dubious " principles" , the others resorting to " what I have is enough" more out of frustration that they were unable to have an opportunity to get to the riches, than pure renunciation. Over the last 70 years, courtesy a socialist-minded Central Goverment, it was almost criminal to think that everyone was entitled for everything. The poor were made to be deliberately poor, and the rich were getting richer through dubious means. As time passed by, the information age caught up fast through permeation of media and the internet. Even the humble farmer is able to see what he is missing out in life, but alas, given the disappearance of any solid principles on integrity, and the rapid disintegration of joint families leading to absence of good influence of the elders, the common man has put money right on top of the priority heap, and will now do anything to get more money. This episode is an unfortunate reflection of this degeneration of values in the society over time. And I think this is only bound to get worse. A few thoughts on this whole "Slumdog" nonsense. 1. At the end of the day, it is only a movie and not targeted at any individual in particular. I wonder why people are getting worked up so much over the portrayal of poverty in the movie. After all, it is only the creative expression of the movie team, and if one does not subscribe to it, one should simply stay away from such movies, but the movie makers have all the right to make a movie as per their creative abilities, as long as they don't hurt anyone's sensibilities. And I don't think they have hurt anyone's sensibilities. 2. The whole intelligentsia of the country seems to be on a mission of " why do you want to make money trying to portray my poverty?" This, to me, is nothing but paranoid thinking. How many of these so-called intelligentsia have used this occasion to really question ourselves on HOW we can do away with poverty, slums and make ourselves a better country? Why get worked up when someone criticizes us or picks on our weakness? 3. One has to remember common human tendency - when someone is on the ascendancy, the others, more out of jealousy or out of other negative feelings, will constantly be on the lookout for weakspots, and blow them up. Look at the kind of criticism of China on many front - human rights, lack of freedom for labour, lack of democracy etc etc etc... every time the West wants to pick on them... their response? IGNORE. And move on with what they believe in. 4. Why can't we do the same? Why not take this as a recognition that the world is now noticing India for it's "growth story" and in many ways, sometimes even gets alarmed... and so it is only natural that the Strong would pick on our weak spots and magnify them. Instead of genuinely working towards mitigating those weaknesses, why go on a self-denial mode or sneer at people who point them to us? Take critism positively, and if, as a nation, we want to stand up and be counted amongst the best, and I believe that as a nation, we certainly want to be one, then we should NOT ignore such weak points or criticisms, but rather work on them seriously. But alas, I do not see any of that happening. The last news I heard was that the same Dharavi slum, which was to be redeveloped into a proper settlement colony, with commercial interest, is now going to continue to languish, because Unitech or DLF has pulled out of the project... if this is really true, then shame on us... this will then smack of an attitude such as " we will continue to have all the filth, and wont make any meaningful efforts to get rid of them, but others have no right to point it out".

Reminds me of the Ostrich burying it's head in the desert sand!! I know many of us won't like my above criticism, but I genuinely feel it is high time that we as a nation started to recognize our own problems and earnestly work on them, and not shoo away any criticism just because it comes from outside. We have this dirty habit of harping on our old glorious past and simply resting on those laurels, even as the present rots away. When I see countries like Japan, Korea, Singapoore, Hongkong and even Malaysia making progress over the last 100 years, I would like to ask ourselves - how much potential we really had over the last century to make ourselves a more prosperous society, and how much opportunities have we missed? I don't have to answer this - we all know the answer, dont' we? Cheers. Dilip

Patek Philippe

This is amusing. See this adverstiement of Patek Philippe. http://www.patek.com/patek-philippe.html?pageId=8021&backgroundId=4&lang=en&

The USP is " You never really own a Patek Philippe. You merely look after it for the next generation". Cut to the election campaign now... and this read this... Looks like Motilal Nehru has been a Creative Director for Patek Philippe more than 80 years ago !!!!

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Early-start-Gandhi-Gen-Five-hits-the-campaign-trail/articleshow/4398205.cms

Early start: Gandhi Gen-Five on campaign trail 14 Apr 2009, 0900 hrs IST, Manjari Mishra , TNN

JAGDISHPUR: Former pradhan of Chandosi gram sabha Kanhaiya Baksh Singh had an unusual assignment on Sunday, April 12 — he escorted Priyanka  Rehan and Maira made friends easily with village children, shaking hands & distributing Congress badges. (TOI Photo) Vadra's children, Rehan (7) and Maira (5), on their maiden independent election trail in the family pocketborough of Amethi.  Singh (53) sums it up with an old Awadhi saying, "Kathi ki bili bhi gungunati hai (even a cat in the house of a katha singer knows how to hum)." Today, he is a proud man, having helped in the launch of the fourth generation of Gandhis in the hurly-burly of heartland politics. "It came as a bolt from the blue," he told TOI.  Resting at home, Singh was summoned to Munshiganj rest house for "an important business". There, the old family loyalist was given charge of Rehan and Maira, who were raring to go "canvassing for mama" all on their own, with only a maid and security personnel for company.  The team left the resthouse at 10 in the morning and for the next two-and-a-half hours toured adjacent villages of Chandoki, Ramshahpur and Hardoia. "The little ones are born charmers," said Singh, who excitedly described how "the two took to meeting people like fish takes to water". They needed no tutoring. "Gandhi parivar ke bachcho ko bhala kya samjhane ki zaroorat hai (where's the need to train a Gandhi kid)," he said. Both made friends easily with village children, shaking hands and distributing badges with pictures of Rahul and Sonia.  The strategy to woo the elderly was different. Clad in red kurta and white pyjama, little Rehan hit it off with them by bending down and touching their feet without any prompting, parting with a crisp one-liner: "Rahul mama ko zaroor vote dijiye (please vote for Uncle Rahul)." Like a consummate politician, Rehan, while walking the lanes of Hardoia, a Dalit dominated area, stopped by an ailing old man on a string bed in his veranda. He inched closer, looked at the man and asked, "How are you uncle?" before repeating the all-important message. The children even walked into huts to meet and chat up veiled women who were reluctant to come out in presence of village seniors.  Priyanka told the media on Monday that the kids were out campaigning for their Mamaji and had even provided her with valuable feedback on problems like power cuts facing the constituency. "I thought let them have a first-hand feel of life..." said a beaming Priyanka.

NSA

India as a country seems to have selective vision, when it comes to many day-to-day things, and especially in politics.

Varun Gandhi was thrown in jail for his "hate speech" , under the National Security Act. If it proven that he had indeed made such a speech then it certainly deserves all the condemnation and punishment.

But, in the same country, in the same paeriod, Sajjad Lone, the leader of the J&K People's conference, a separatist movement, is fighting the ensuing elections , on separatist plank. In other words, he is turning the election in the constituency, into a virtual referendum exercise in favour of separatism. His outward position is "I will contest polls with a commitment to use this mechanism as a method to represent the voice of the Kashmiri people and to take the strength and merits of our aspirations to the central stage of India".   Clearly directed at the lawmakers to ensure that no law can be explicitly used against him for doing this. No NSA. Nothing.

The most shocking part is - there is not a word of condemnation from the Congress-led UPA Govt to this. You and I know how any other country in Asia would have reacted to such a person who openly espouses separatism.  

Nor is there any "opinion" or "analysis" from the Pseudo-secular media, other than the customary "matter of fact" reporting.

But then, this is a Democratic India. God help Bharat Mata!!!