Cash for Clunkers

I arrived in the US yesterday on a week's visit on work.

I am hearing a lot of "exciting" things about this Cash For Clunkers program has apparently has been hugely popular.

Crudely put, this is what I understand of the program. if your car gives less than 18 miles per Gallon ( God knows why the Yankees stick to such 18th century units of measurement, when the rest of the world has moved on), then you could buy a new "Quasi Green" car which will give more mileage, and , in the process , get upto $4500 off the bill... that is almost 25% to 15% rebate on the car, depending upon the model.... the biggest to gain is Ford so far, and the Govt is serisouly debating extending this program, to give a second chance to the two candidates on death-bed - GM and Chevy.

Back to the basics. Who gains? Those guys who indulged in the gas-guzzling SUVs and Hummers of yore, when the going was good, at the expense of the those who thought it more prodent to go in for more fuel efficient cars. And who foots the bill? All tax-payers, collectively.
Net of it, you collect tax money from all and sundry, including the 'responsible" and "rckless" guys, and put that money in the hands of those " irresponsible" guys...

Much like the "bail-outs" which really set the precedent for all bad behaviour to be encouraged.

This, to me, is communism gone awry!!!

Cathode Ray tube and Copper tube

I rolled on the floor and laughed at the news item released on Times of India an hour ago (reproduced below).... Blame it on Mr. Ghulam Nabi Azad! Indians are known the world over for lateral thinking, and what better standing example ( no pun intended, seriously!) can be shown, than this masterpiece from the minister!!! India desperately needs electrification - for lighting rural homes and for pumping water. Farmers want to pump water, and the minister says not to, and that too in such a novel fashion!!! Now I know the secret of Karunanidhi giving away free television sets to all and sundry... he is a genius ... he quietly collaborated with Ghulam Nabi Azad and wanted to replace copper tube (Copper-T) with Cathode ray tube ... and how stupid we all were, thinking rather naively that he was giving TV sets to garner votes... let us leave the politicians do their job ( I mean, of population control!). P.S: Heard in the grapevine ... the Union Law minister is about to propose to enact a new law, which mandates that every adult shall either stay awake and watch TV all night, or at least leave the TV on from dusk to dawn, so that there shall be light. Penalty for non-compliance - watch Doordharshan continuously for 72 hours!!! Read on !!!!!!!!!!! Cheers..... Dilip ======================================================================= Village electrification can curb population growth: Azad IANS 11 July 2009, 07:26pm IST Print Email Discuss Bookmark/Share Save Comment Text Size: | NEW DELHI: Health and family welfare minister Ghulam Nabi Azad on Saturday became a votary of rapid electrification of villages in India but for a different reason - to curb population growth by ensuring access to television. "Electricity in our villages can help control population growth. Electricity will lead to television in houses, which will lead to population control. When there is no light, people get engaged in the process of population growth," he said while addressing a function on World Population Day. "Don't think that I am saying this in a lighter vein. I am serious. TV will have a great impact. It's a great medium to tackle the problem," he added. "When light will reach (villages), 80 percent of population growth can be reduced through TV," he said, adding that the current United Progressive Alliance (UPA) central government is working to ensure greater rural electrification. He also exhorted media and TV channels to provide quality materials and highlight positive news. The minister said that population growth needs to be controlled as it will have positive impact on "all Indians". "It is the duty of all MPs, ministries and of all individuals to help in curbing the population growth," he said adding that India contributes to 17 percent of the global population but the land area of our country is just 2.5 percent of the total land available in the world. "We need to think that more children means more problems," Azad said. India with over a billion people is second only to China in terms of sheer number of people and experts believe if the current trend of growth continues, then the country may surpass China by 2030.

US National debt

Grave reading....http://www.cnbc.com/id/31723265

Of particular interest is this snippet below....The odometer-style "debt clock" near Times Square — put in place in 1989 whenthe debt was a mere $2.7 trillion — ran out of numbers and had to be shut downwhen the debt surged past $10 trillion in 2008. The clock has since beenrefurbished so higher numbers fit.

Markets update

I had mentioned earlier that I made a wrong call during the elections -that the markets would go down after a Hung Parliament emerges ...Subsequently I have got back in slowly, and am now sitting on a profit of 20% onmy portfolio . Today, I have booked partial profits in "momentum plays" like commodities andRealty. I intend taking out some more on Monday after the budget finishes, onCommmodities. I intend leavin the balance over.I know I missed the Election ferviour, and am determined not to miss this one.I have a funny feeling that the markets go through the much needed correction,either starting on Budget day ( if the budget is screwed up) or sometimethereafter ...it is very difficult to time the market.For the past few days, the market has been very edgy, and on very thin volumescomparatively. Over the last couple of weeks, FIIs have been pulling out money,and DIIs are getting in.Globally, credit is getting tightened again. California is techincally abankrupt state now. Unemployment is flirting with 10% in the US. Inflation islikely to come in again. treasury yields are getting more attractive again-indicating potential "flight to safety".Which means we could see strengthening of the Greenback again for sometime, andglobally the stock markets could possibly go through one more round ofcorrection....All this is guesswork at this stage, since I dont have the luxury of hard , andall this could go wrong again... but, this is my call right now, andtherefore, barring the long term investments, I am likely to pull out all mytrading money from the market.I am eyeing the Auto Sector and Realty now as a contrarian play like I did for sugar, essentially in the midcap space. Still testing the waters there, andwould like to see some correction before I put in big money there. Auto Sectormaybe in the next 3 months, and realty in another 6 possibly...

Federer

I think that of late, Federer has started making more and more unforced errors compared to what he used to, by his own high standards... which is one reason why is tends to lose more often, of late...

But I am fervently hoping that this poetry in motion continues for eternity.....

Match

What do you call today's semi-finals between Andy Murray and Andy Roddick?
















......MATCH OF THE AANDIES !!!!!!!!!!(Andippandarams!)

Bull top and Bear bottom

I have been clsoely following the indices of some countries, and based on empirical evidence, when the Indian Sensex hit 20,000 about 1 1/2 years ago, I had called it the market top, and also had predicted that if and when a correction comes, the Sensex may hit 8000 at the minimum...

I was proved dead right in Oct 2008, when the Sensex hit 7600, and has since recovered to dizzy levels, much like the other markets.

Many people had asked me how I called this out. Let me explain my rationale.

1. 20,000 is a huge psychological barrier by any standards, and can only sustain if there is sustained incremental earnings potential beyond that. By the time the Sensex got there, the PE was about 28, and about 22 based on FY09 projections, and in my opinion, there was not much steam left from thereon. I had pulled out all my money from the market the day the index hit 20000. Of course, it went on to briefly cross 22000, before that major bear market fall all the way to 7600.


2. On the rationale of how much low can it get, I had based them on my observations then, but now I am able to prove it with charts from Yahoo. I am attaching a few as samples - the Hangseng, Nikkei, Straits Times, Shanghai Composite and, of course, the Sensex. As can be clearly seen, from approximately the top of the bull market, the bear grip has lasted for all the way to about 1/3rd of the peak value, give and take a few. This, I have observed in the previous down cycles in the late ninetees, as well as the early ninetees, has always been consistent. Now, thanks to the power of the Net , and thanks to Yahoo, I have been able to prove it with charts.

Where do the markets go from hereon?

Your guess is as good as mine!