Friday, July 3, 2009

Markets update

I had mentioned earlier that I made a wrong call during the elections -that the markets would go down after a Hung Parliament emerges ...Subsequently I have got back in slowly, and am now sitting on a profit of 20% onmy portfolio . Today, I have booked partial profits in "momentum plays" like commodities andRealty. I intend taking out some more on Monday after the budget finishes, onCommmodities. I intend leavin the balance over.I know I missed the Election ferviour, and am determined not to miss this one.I have a funny feeling that the markets go through the much needed correction,either starting on Budget day ( if the budget is screwed up) or sometimethereafter ...it is very difficult to time the market.For the past few days, the market has been very edgy, and on very thin volumescomparatively. Over the last couple of weeks, FIIs have been pulling out money,and DIIs are getting in.Globally, credit is getting tightened again. California is techincally abankrupt state now. Unemployment is flirting with 10% in the US. Inflation islikely to come in again. treasury yields are getting more attractive again-indicating potential "flight to safety".Which means we could see strengthening of the Greenback again for sometime, andglobally the stock markets could possibly go through one more round ofcorrection....All this is guesswork at this stage, since I dont have the luxury of hard , andall this could go wrong again... but, this is my call right now, andtherefore, barring the long term investments, I am likely to pull out all mytrading money from the market.I am eyeing the Auto Sector and Realty now as a contrarian play like I did for sugar, essentially in the midcap space. Still testing the waters there, andwould like to see some correction before I put in big money there. Auto Sectormaybe in the next 3 months, and realty in another 6 possibly...

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सुकूं का रस्ता

मुझे सुकूं का रस्ता कभी न दिख सका था, जहां था मेरा सपना, वही पे खो चुका था। मैं एक शक्ल थी जो अधूरी रह गई थी, कभी जो रंग सच्चा, उसी को भूल च...