Vaikuntha Ekadashi

 தாய் கண்ட துயரமெல்லாம் தீர்க்க வந்த திருமாலே

தளர்ந்த நெஞ்சம் தாங்கிடவே தாழ்ந்து நின்ற திருமாலே

தரிசனம் தந்த நாளெல்லாம் தண்ணீராய் உருகும் நெஞ்சம்

தவித்த உயிர்க்குத் தாரகமாய் தழைத்த நாமம்—மாலே

தீய கண்ணீர் தீர்த்திடவே தீபமாய் நின்ற திருமாலே

திசையெங்கும் தெய்வமென்று தெரிவதெல்லாம் உன் கோலமே

துன்பச் சுமை துளையாக்கி துயர் கழுவும் திருப்பாதம்

துயில் கெடும் இரவெல்லாம் துய்ய நாமம்—மாலே

தாய்போல் அரவணைக்கும் தன்மை கொண்ட திருமாலே

தர்மம் காக்கத் தாழ்வென்றும் துணிந்த இதயம்—மாலே

தடுமாறும் காலடிக்கு தாங்கு கம்பம் உன் கருணை

தரணியெல்லாம் தழுவுகின்ற தரிசன ரூபம்—மாலே

துளசியின் வாசம் போலத் தொடரும் உன் நினைவே

தீராத பசியென்றும் தீர்த்திடும் உன் நாமமே

தொலைந்த பாதை திரும்பிடவே தொட்டு நிற்கும் திருவருள்

தவம் வேண்டா—தாழ்வான நெஞ்சம் போதும், மாலே

India's Maritime Renaissance: A Journey Back to the Seas

There's something profoundly moving about watching the INSV Kaundinya set sail toward Muscat on her maiden voyage. This isn't just a ship—it's a declaration of intent, a bridge between India's glorious maritime past and its promising nautical future.

The vessel takes its name from Kaundinya I, the legendary first-century Indian mariner whose voyages to Southeast Asia weren't just adventures but the beginnings of cultural exchanges that would shape civilizations. His story, like so many from India's maritime golden age, reminds us of what once was: a nation of seafarers whose influence stretched from the Arabian coast to the distant shores of Africa, from the Bay of Bengal to the far reaches of Southeast Asia. For two millennia, Indian sailors and traders were masters of these waters, with the mighty Chola empire extending its reach across vast oceanic expanses.

What makes the Kaundinya's voyage particularly exciting is what it represents. Built as a faithful replica of fifth-century vessels depicted in the Ajanta Caves murals—constructed without nails, using ancient techniques—this ship is more than nostalgia. It's a reminder that India's maritime excellence isn't a distant myth but a tangible heritage waiting to be reclaimed.

And the timing couldn't be more opportune. Today, as global supply chains reveal their vulnerabilities and nations reassess their strategic capabilities, India stands at a crossroads of tremendous possibility. The shipbuilding sector—dominated by powerhouses like Japan, South Korea, and China—is precisely the kind of labor-intensive industry where India's demographic dividend could shine brilliantly.

The opportunity is clear: combine India's abundant workforce with cutting-edge technology and skill development, and we have the foundation for a maritime resurgence. Imagine Indian shipyards buzzing with activity over the next decade, producing world-class commercial vessels that carry goods across global trade routes. It's not a fantasy—it's an achievable goal with the right investments and partnerships.

What's particularly encouraging is that India doesn't need to go it alone. Collaboration with established shipbuilding nations like Japan and South Korea could accelerate knowledge transfer and technological advancement, creating a win-win scenario that strengthens both India's capabilities and regional maritime cooperation.

The INSV Kaundinya's journey—first to Muscat, then onward to Bali and beyond—serves as a powerful metaphor. Just as this ancient-style vessel navigates modern seas, India can blend its rich maritime heritage with contemporary innovation to carve out a significant role in global shipping.

The path forward requires commitment from both government and private sectors, strategic investments in infrastructure and skills, and a national vision that recognizes shipbuilding as the strategic priority it truly is. But if there's one thing the Kaundinya's voyage teaches us, it's that the spirit of Indian seafaring never truly disappeared—it was simply waiting for the right moment to return.

As we watch this remarkable vessel sail toward the horizon, we're not just looking back at history. We're glimpsing a future where India once again commands respect on the world's oceans—not through conquest, but through capability, commerce, and connection.

The winds appear to be favourable. It is perhaps time to set sail.

What Ho! The Christmas That Wasn't

Statutory warning: I maintain an irrational loyalty to premium audio equipment and an unfortunate habit of noticing what everyone else successfully ignores.

The thermometer read minus four Celsius. "Feels like minus thirteen," chirped Alexa, with the sort of sadistic glee one associates with dentists announcing root canal procedures. Undaunted, I set forth on my morning constitutional. Christmas morning, no less. One doesn't let a little thing like potential frostbite interfere with one's daily perambulation. That way lies softness, and softness leads to elasticated waistbands.

The kit: four layers of clothing, two winter caps (one concealing what nature chose to make aerodynamic), Gore-Tex boots, thermal underthings, and my faithful Bose over-ear headphones. Twenty-five years I've stuck with Bose. Longer than most celebrities stay married. In Singapore's swelter, I use the in-ear sort—unless one fancies braising one's brain in its own juices. But here in Wisconsin's arctic wastes, the over-ear models are the ticket. They muffle wind, seal out cold, and prevent one's ears from snapping off like frozen biscuits.

Thus armoured and caffeinated, I ventured into the frozen wastes.

The previous evening's reconnaissance had revealed something distinctly rum. The neighborhood blazed with Christmas lights—enough wattage to stage Diwali and the Blackpool Illuminations simultaneously. Snowmen stood guard. Light-up reindeer grazed. Santas waved mechanically from rooftops. The whole nine yards of festive fol-de-rol.

Only one tiny detail missing: people.

Not a soul. Not one. I peered through windows (gentlemanly peering, naturally—none of your vulgar gawping) and found rooms as empty as a politician's promise. It was like stumbling onto a film set after the crew had packed up and scarpered, only someone had forgotten to turn off the lights and the electricity bill.

Where were the blighters? Had they all been beamed up? Won a collective trip to Barbados? Spontaneously combusted?

The more prosaic explanation, I fear, involved the standard modern pattern: Young folk flee for Cities with proper coffee shops and reliable WiFi. Leave elderly parents rattling around in houses roughly the size of Westminster Abbey. Check in via FaceTime twice yearly. Consider duty done.

Houses, not homes. Homes have voices, laughter, burned Yorkshire pudding, arguments over the remote. These structures had all the warmth of a banker's handshake.

This morning's walk made the previous evening's effort look positively carnivalesque.

Lights: off. Streets: deserted. Churches: locked, littered with dead leaves, looking rather how I imagine the morning after the office Christmas party. Not a creature stirring, not even the proverbial mouse. The only movement came from those ominous grey clouds overhead, which had the decency to merely threaten rather than assault.

One pictures the scene inside those fortresses of solitude: Amazon boxes on the doorstep. DoorDash DashMesh long departed, his delivery app pinging cheerfully. Inside, Grandma or Grandpa—or both, if lucky—unwrapping gifts with arthritic fingers. Audience: the television (CNN burbling), the dog (snoring), the cat (judging).

The neighborhood pub where they once held court? Wheelchair won't budge, old sport. The Christmas ball where they cut a rug in '63? Hips replaced, knees shot, dancing days done. The family gathering with siblings and their rowdy offspring? Busy Timothy has a "conflict"—lacrosse tournament in Connecticut, terribly sorry.

What's left? The pre-paid plot at Eternal Rest Gardens. Location secured (nice and quiet). Coffin selected (mahogany, very dignified). Tombstone design approved (tasteful font, none of your Comic Sans nonsense). Wreath size determined. All sorted, all paid for. Just waiting for the final curtain. Then – rest in peace, and celebrate Christmas in the netherworld. 

But wait!  Aren’t these oldies already resting in peace in those homes, nay, houses? 

Merry Christmas to all. Especially to those celebrating it alone, with only the cat for company and CNN for conversation.

Debt Is Not Destiny: Why India’s Long-Term Growth Will Be Decided in Its States

Debt has become the default instrument of economic policy across much of the world. In the decade following the global financial crisis—and again after the pandemic—governments increasingly relied on borrowing to sustain growth, stabilise incomes and finance public investment. The result has been a sharp rise in public debt almost everywhere.

The more relevant question today is not whether debt is high, but whether it is productive. Over long horizons, economies succeed when borrowing expands productive capacity faster than the cost of servicing that borrowing. Where this condition fails, debt eventually constrains growth rather than enabling it.

Imagine a household buying its first home with a mortgage. The loan is manageable, payments fit comfortably within income, and as earnings rise over time, the debt feels lighter. This is leverage working as intended.

Encouraged by rising prices, the household buys a second home, again mostly on debt. Rental income covers part of the cost, and salary growth fills the rest. Leverage still works because income broadly keeps pace with obligations.

Now imagine a third and fourth property. Income growth slows, but borrowing continues. Maintenance costs rise, interest rates fluctuate, and cash flows tighten. On paper, the household looks wealthier. In reality, the margin for error has disappeared. Any shock—a job loss, a rate hike—forces difficult choices.

This is the point at which debt stops being fuel and starts becoming ballast.

The parallel with public finances is clear. Governments can carry rising debt so long as income grows faster than obligations. Trouble begins when borrowing continues even as income growth slows, or when debt funds consumption rather than assets that raise future earning power.

Some economies resemble the prudent first homeowner. Others look closer to the over-leveraged investor, relying on growth to arrive on schedule. History suggests it rarely does.

A useful way to frame this trade-off is to compare the growth of government debt with the growth of per-capita income. If incomes rise faster, debt becomes more manageable over time. If debt outpaces income, leverage accumulates—even if headline GDP growth appears healthy.

Viewed through this lens, global outcomes diverge markedly.

A Global Divide

A small group of economies—most notably Vietnam and Taiwan—have managed to align debt growth closely with per-capita income growth over the past decade. Their success rests on export-led growth models, strong manufacturing or technology ecosystems, and relatively disciplined fiscal frameworks. Singapore, often cited for its high gross debt, remains a special case: its liabilities are matched by financial assets, making conventional debt metrics misleading.

At the other end of the spectrum lie economies such as China, Brazil and South Africa, where debt has expanded substantially faster than per-capita income. In China’s case, the issue is not simply the level of debt but its concentration in local governments and property-linked financing vehicles, which has reduced the productivity of incremental borrowing.

Between these two groups sit several large emerging economies—including India—where income growth remains strong but debt has begun to rise more rapidly. This is not yet a point of stress. But it is a signal worth taking seriously.

India’s Aggregate Strength—and Its Hidden Risk

At the national level, India’s macroeconomic position remains comparatively favourable. The country benefits from a long demographic runway, a large domestic savings pool, and public debt that is overwhelmingly denominated in local currency. Its digital public infrastructure has also improved fiscal capacity and targeting efficiency.

Yet India’s government debt has grown faster than per-capita income over the past decade, reflecting infrastructure investment, expanded welfare spending and pandemic-related support. So far, growth has been sufficient to absorb this increase.

The more important vulnerability, however, lies below the surface.

India is fiscally decentralised to an extent few large economies are. Its states account for a substantial share of public spending and borrowing—and they differ enormously in economic structure, revenue capacity and policy quality.

Thirty Economies, One Sovereign

A small number of Indian states—such as Karnataka, Haryana, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Telangana—have come close to maintaining a balance between debt growth and per-capita income growth. These states benefit from stronger urbanisation, export exposure, and higher productivity sectors.

Most states do not.

Across much of India, state-level debt has grown significantly faster than per-capita income. This reflects borrowing directed towards consumption subsidies, transfers and recurrent expenditures rather than productivity-enhancing investment. Over time, such patterns weaken fiscal resilience.

Unlike the central government, states operate under hard constraints. They cannot issue currency. They cannot adjust exchange rates. And their capacity to refinance debt depends increasingly on central transfers and market confidence. Persistent divergence between debt growth and income growth at the state level therefore poses a structural risk to India’s medium-term growth trajectory.

The Long-Term Implications

Debt dynamics evolve slowly. Problems rarely emerge in the early stages, when growth is strong and financing conditions are benign. The difficulty arises later, when demographic tailwinds fade and growth normalises, leaving less room to absorb accumulated obligations.

International experience is clear: economies that sustain high growth over decades use debt to raise productivity, not to defer adjustment. Where borrowing substitutes for reform, growth eventually slows.

India today sits between these two paths.

What Needs to Change

If India is to sustain high growth over the next three to four decades, the focus of reform must shift decisively towards state-level fiscal quality.

First, borrowing frameworks should be more explicitly linked to economic outcomes. States that demonstrate durable improvements in income growth, export capacity and urban employment should have greater fiscal space than those that do not.

Second, India’s fiscal rules need updating. Headline deficit targets matter less than the relationship between debt servicing costs, revenue growth and per-capita income. A revised framework should reflect this reality.

Third, off-balance-sheet liabilities—particularly in power, transport and urban infrastructure—should be fully consolidated. Hidden debt undermines accountability and delays adjustment.

Fourth, incentives must be aligned. States that manage debt prudently and grow incomes faster should be rewarded through lower borrowing costs or greater autonomy.

Finally, India must accelerate urban productivity. Cities remain the country’s most underutilised growth engine. Property taxation, user charges and municipal finance reform are essential to reducing pressure on state balance sheets.

A Narrowing Window

India’s public debt is not yet a binding constraint. But the margin for error is shrinking. Over time, the difference between debt that enables growth and debt that merely sustains spending becomes decisive.

International comparisons offer a clear lesson. Economies such as Vietnam and Taiwan show how disciplined borrowing can support long-term prosperity. Others illustrate the costs of postponing adjustment.

India still has the opportunity to choose the former path. Whether it does so will depend less on national ambition than on how its states choose to borrow, invest and reform.

India's pollution mess

 India’s urban air pollution crisis is no longer a policy failure. It is an institutional disgrace.

What Indian cities are experiencing year after year is not an unavoidable by-product of growth, nor an unfortunate seasonal aberration. It is the predictable outcome of systemic government paralysis—central, state, and municipal—wrapped in performative seriousness, empty targets, and politically convenient scapegoating. Delhi merely exposes the rot; the disease is nationwide.

The government’s favourite fig leaf is BS6 emission standards. Yes, BS6 is technically superior. Yes, cleaner fuels matter. But treating BS6 as the cornerstone of India’s clean-air strategy is either economic illiteracy or deliberate deception. BS6 applies only to new vehicles. India’s vehicle fleet turns over painfully slowly. Two-wheelers, old diesel trucks, and ageing commercial vehicles remain on the road for 15–20 years. Are Indian citizens genuinely expected to inhale poison for another decade and a half while policymakers congratulate themselves for “world-class norms”?

This is not transition management; it is abdication. Any serious government would have paired BS6 with aggressive, compulsory scrappage, meaningful incentives, and punitive disincentives for high emitters. Instead, scrappage remains voluntary, toothless, under-funded, and conveniently unenforced. Why? Because enforcing it would anger voters, disrupt informal resale markets, and require administrative spine. So the costs are outsourced to public lungs.

Public transport tells the same story of hollow intent. India builds metros like prestige monuments, then refuses to fund the unglamorous but essential last mile. A metro station that requires a private vehicle to reach is not public transport; it is an emissions amplifier. People do not “refuse” to use public transport out of stubbornness—they respond rationally to time, comfort, reliability, and safety. When feeder buses are absent, sidewalks are broken, and work destinations are unreachable, private vehicles win. Every time.

Electric buses are paraded as proof of progress. In reality, deployment numbers are laughably inadequate relative to urban demand. Cities announce tenders, float pilot projects, hold press conferences—and then stall. Charging infrastructure lags. Bus lanes remain politically inconvenient. Fleet utilisation stays low. Electrification without scale and priority corridors is nothing more than green theatre.

Meanwhile, the most obvious pollution sources—road dust, construction debris, uncovered trucks, and poorly regulated logistics—are treated as peripheral irritants rather than core contributors to PM2.5. Municipalities sit on funds allocated under national programs, using a fraction of them, while cities remain visibly filthy. Mechanical sweepers break down. Construction norms are ignored. Enforcement officers look the other way. The economic cost—in health expenditure, lost productivity, and premature mortality—never appears in budget speeches.

And then comes the most cynical manoeuvre of all: the ritualistic vilification of farmers.

Every winter, governments suddenly discover crop burning. Crackdowns are announced. FIRs are threatened. Television debates erupt. This is not environmental governance; it is seasonal political optics. The same state machinery that cannot enforce dust control, scrappage, or construction norms magically discovers coercive capacity when it is electorally convenient to target a politically weak group. The economic reality—that farmers lack viable alternatives at scale, and that governments failed to provide them—is quietly buried.

This selective toughness exposes the truth: pollution control in India is not about outcomes; it is about narratives.

The National Clean Air Programme itself has become an emblem of this failure. Targets exist. Funds exist. But utilisation is abysmal, accountability nonexistent, and consequences for non-performance nil. Cities miss targets, air quality worsens, and yet no official loses office, budget, or credibility. In any functioning system, such persistent failure would trigger institutional reform. In India, it triggers another committee.

The uncomfortable conclusion is this: India’s air pollution crisis persists because pollution is cheaper than competence. The health costs are diffuse, delayed, and borne by citizens. The political costs of decisive action are immediate and concentrated. Rational governments, facing weak accountability, choose inaction dressed up as concern.

This is why India increasingly resembles a banana republic in environmental governance—not because it lacks technology or money, but because it lacks enforcement integrity. Rules exist only until they inconvenience power. Programs exist only until they require delivery. The public is fed slogans, timelines, and dashboards while breathing some of the world’s most toxic urban air.

Clean air will not come from another standard, another app, or another press release. It will come only when governments accept that pollution is an economic liability, not a public relations problem—and are forced to pay a political price for ignoring it.

Until then, Indian cities will continue to suffocate under a thick fog of official denial, seasonal outrage, and permanent inaction—while being told, yet again, that progress is just around the corner.

Tech in modern warfare

 Modern warfare is being fundamentally reshaped. From Ukraine’s battlefields to China’s military reforms, it is clear that 21st-century conflicts are driven more by technological superiority than by sheer troop numbers. For India, with roughly 1.2 million active personnel, this shift presents both a challenge and a strategic opportunity.

Ukraine has emerged as a real-world laboratory for future warfare. The conflict shows how inexpensive technologies can neutralize traditional military advantages. Commercial drones costing a few hundred dollars have destroyed tanks worth millions, while AI-driven targeting, real-time satellite imagery, cyber warfare, and precision munitions have proven more decisive than massed infantry. Ukraine’s use of Starlink communications, crowdsourced intelligence, and AI-assisted artillery has demonstrated that smaller, networked units can outperform large conventional formations.

China offers a parallel case study in deliberate military transformation. In 2015, President Xi Jinping reduced the PLA by 300,000 troops—not as a sign of weakness, but to redirect resources toward advanced capabilities. Investment shifted to hypersonic missiles, stealth aircraft, cyber and space warfare, AI, autonomous systems, and advanced command structures. The creation of the PLA Strategic Support Force consolidated cyber, electronic, and space warfare, enabling China to build one of the world’s most technologically advanced militaries with fewer personnel.

By contrast, India’s armed forces remain largely structured around mid-20th-century doctrines. Personnel costs consume about 60% of the defense budget, leaving limited room for modernization, R&D, and emerging technologies. This creates a cycle where maintaining large forces crowds out investment in drones, AI, cyber capabilities, and space-based intelligence.

Reducing India’s army to around 700,000–800,000 personnel is not about weakening national security, but redefining it. Such a shift could free billions annually for force-multiplying technologies: drone warfare, cyber units, AI-enabled logistics and surveillance, missile defense, and autonomous border monitoring. Given India’s geography, sensors, UAVs, and satellites can often outperform large troop deployments, especially in remote and mountainous terrain.

Critics point to multiple hostile borders, deterrence concerns, and employment issues. However, modern deterrence increasingly comes from technological capability rather than numbers. Precision strike capacity, cyber resilience, and space assets often deter adversaries more effectively than infantry divisions. A phased 10–15 year transition, managed through attrition and retraining, could also shift employment toward higher-skill roles in defense technology and industry.

Future wars will be decided by information dominance, precision, and multi-domain operations—not by oversized conventional forces. As China accelerates modernization and Ukraine reveals the future of warfare, India cannot afford to remain anchored to outdated structures. The real question is not whether India should reform its force structure, but whether it can afford not to. In modern warfare, capability and intelligence increasingly outweigh numbers.

மாயை

 பொலிந்த உலகின் பொய்மை கண்டே

பொங்கி வெடித்தது உள்ளம் — ஹா!

நம்பி நெஞ்சில் நஞ்சே வார்த்தாய்,

நகைத்த முகத்தில் மாயை தானே!

சரளம் சொற்களால் செருக்கை மறைத்து,

சாந்தம் போலே சதித்த நடை—

மார்பின் ஆழத்தில் முத்து என நனைத்த

மறைக்குள் கல்லை தரித்தவளே!

இன்று மீண்டும் நினைவு வந்து

இருட்டின் ஆளாய் நிலையைக் கொண்டாள்;

துடிக்கும் இதயமோ துன்பம் தானே

தூய்மை நெஞ்சின் துரோகச் சுமை!

சிரிப்பு முத்தாம் செருப்பாய் பட்டு,

சிறைபோல் சுமந்த சுகந்த வார்த்தை—

இன்று அவள் வாழ்வு வாடை தாங்கி,

இரங்க மறுப்பது இதயக் கடன்!

தூரம், மூடம், துறக்கம் எல்லாம்

தோற்றமென்றேனும் தோற்றம் தானே;

கருணை போலே கருமம் செய்தாய்—

கண்ட கணங்களில் கள்ளம் வழிந்தாய்!

கண்களில் வீசும் இனிமை கூட

கள்வன் வலைபோல் கணையைக் குத்தி—

துன்பம் சூழும் தருணங்களிலும்

துளியும் தொலைவே தரவில்லை!

மக்கள் நடுவே மிளிர்ந்த நட்சத்திரம்—

மன அண்டத்தில் ஒளியாய் இல்லை;

அமைதி நேரம் அழைத்தபோது

அருகே நிழலாய் அலைந்தவளே!

Dont be a hoarder at 60

Yesterday, I was standing in front of the mirror. I told myself many of what I am writing up below. So, here I am, providing unsolicited life advice. Here it goes.

By the time we cross sixty, we have already spent a lifetime sacrificing, building, worrying, protecting. We have hustled through the prime of our health so that the future could be secure. We saved for children’s education, for weddings, for emergencies, for a retirement that once felt decades away. And now that retirement is here, instead of the freedom we once dreamed of, many of us choose fear. We clutch our bank balances like a fragile shield against the unknown, denying ourselves even the simplest joys.

But we forget something fundamental: children do not measure our love by the wealth we lock away for them. They will stand tall on their own, and the greatest gift we can leave them is not the burden of our unspent legacy, but the memory that we lived well, laughed freely, and taught them the meaning of living without regret. Hoarding for them at the cost of your own comfort is not sacrifice—it is self-neglect disguised as love.

Look back at the years behind you—every rushed morning, every postponed desire, every illness endured without complaint. You did not endure all that to live with the lights dimmed in your own home, counting every rupee as if spending is a crime. You saved so that these years—your years—would be kinder. You earned the right to loosen your shoulders, to sit in a comfortable chair, to travel while your legs still support you, to eat well while you can still taste, and to wake up without worrying about tomorrow’s pennies.

Living cautiously is wise; living joylessly is waste. It is not about reckless spending, but about responsible enjoyment. There is a middle path between extravagance and austerity. Somewhere in that space lies a life where the AC can stay on during a bad summer night, where a taxi is not a guilt-inducing luxury, where a small holiday is not viewed as financial sin. Ask yourself honestly: if not now, then when? Wealth is meant to serve you—not the other way around.

The irony is that guilt becomes our invisible jailer in old age. We feel embarrassed to treat ourselves well. We fear that if we let joy in, disaster will follow. Yet disaster rarely announces itself, and no amount of hoarding can fully shield us from life’s uncertainties. The real tragedy is when money remains unspent and dreams remain unlived, simply because fear kept winning.

In the end, none of us can take anything with us. The savings we count today will one day be someone else’s account entry, untouched by the life we could have lived. And history has always been clear—even those who amassed the greatest fortunes eventually found themselves equal to every common soul beneath the earth. As Thomas Gray reminds us in Elegy Written in a Country Churchyard:

“The paths of glory lead but to the grave.”

Before that path ends—live.

படைப்பின் பெருமை

 பாலைவனத்தைப் பார்த்தாலும் பூஞ்சோலை என்று சொல்லிடுவேன்!

பாடல் ஒன்று எழுதிடவே பேனா தானே எழுந்திடுமே!

காலம் எல்லாம் கடந்தோடிக் கற்பனையால் மாற்றிடுவேன்!

கண்ணில் தெரியும் வறட்சியையே கனிந்த தோட்டமாய்ப் படைப்பேனே!

நீரை எடுத்து மதுவாக்கி நிறைவான பாட்டு பாடிடுவேன்!

நேரம் வரும் அப்பொழுதே நெஞ்சில் கவிதை பொங்கிடுமே!

சீரும் சிறப்பும் இல்லாததைச் செழுமையான கலையாக்கிடுவேன்!

சேர்க்கும் சொல்லின் ஆற்றலினால் செய்யலாம் என்ற நம்பிக்கையே!

எழுத்தாளனின் பார்வையிலே இயல்பானதும் அதிசயமாகும்!

எண்ணம் ஒன்று தோன்றிடவே எதையும் செய்யலாம் என்ற தைரியம்!

கழிவு என்று நினைத்ததெல்லாம் கனிவான பொக்கிஷமாகுமே!

கவிதை எழுதும் வல்லமையால் கற்பனை மெய்யாய் மாறிடுமே!

The IMF's Report Card: Where BRICs Get a 'C' and OECD gets a Pass

An Analysis of Institutional Hypocrisy in Global Economic Assessment

By Dilip Subramanian - the Chief Economist of India (!!!)

The International Monetary Fund has demonstrated its remarkable ability to grade emerging economies with microscopic precision while applying binoculars backwards when examining developed nations. The latest Article IV Consultation report on India commends India's "very strong economic performance," yet the IMF's Data Quality Assessment Framework tells a different story: India's national accounts statistics receive a 'C' rating. 

Look up at https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/24/pr-25392-india-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation

The delicious irony? Brazil and China share this distinction. If that doesn't spell out most of "BRICs," that's not my fault—Russia completes the quartet. What an extraordinary coincidence that the world's most significant emerging economies all suffer from "shortcomings that somewhat hamper surveillance."

The 'C' rating signifies "some shortcomings that somewhat hamper surveillance"—the second-lowest grade. India's sins include an outdated base year of 2011-12, reliance on Wholesale Price Index deflators, and insufficient informal sector coverage. These are legitimate concerns that India openly acknowledges. The government has announced a comprehensive overhaul with a new base year of 2022-23, releasing February 27, 2026, incorporating precisely the data sources the IMF recommends.

But here's the question: if India, with 6.6% projected GDP growth, robust financial systems, and a $4 trillion economy, merits a 'C,' what do other OECD nations deserve?

Ah, the OECD—that paragon of statistical virtue!

A nation whose credit rating was downgraded by Moody's in 2025, and whose Congressional Budget Office revisions dwarf India's discrepancies. Yet miraculously, the US maintains its pristine statistical reputation. But I am sure this is NOT professional courtesy, given the Fund's Washington headquarters and the US Treasury's influence over senior appointments.

European nations enjoy comfortable A-grades despite methodological challenges and the spectacular failure to measure the 2008 financial crisis—which originated not in Mumbai's bazaars but in New York and London's "highly regulated" financial centers.

These ratings matter. Credit rating agencies reference IMF assessments when determining sovereign ratings. A 'C' grade translates into higher borrowing costs, reduced investment confidence, and suspicion over economic performance. India, China, and Brazil—representing over three billion people and substantial global growth—face scrutiny that developed nations conveniently escape.

The pattern is unmistakable: emerging markets face standards calibrated to find fault, while developed economies benefit from low expectations—or no expectations at all.

Here's the absurdity: the problem is already being fixed. India's rebasing will incorporate comprehensive corporate filings, LLP data, and unincorporated enterprise surveys. By February 2026, India's statistical framework will be more current than most developed nations. Will the IMF graciously upgrade the rating, or discover new "shortcomings"?

The predictable outcome: India improves, the 'C' becomes a 'B,' everyone celebrates reform. Meanwhile, the double standard—rigorous scrutiny for emerging markets, forgiving glances for developed ones—remains intact.

India should complete its statistical overhaul with unimpeachable rigour, demand reciprocal DQAF application to developed nations, and build alternative frameworks through institutions like the New Development Bank. When Western institutions demonstrate persistent bias, emerging economies must create spaces for fair assessment.

The IMF faces an existential question: remain relevant in a multipolar world, or be remembered as the institution applying 21st-century standards to emerging markets while allowing 20th-century exceptionalism for its primary shareholders?

India's 'C' rating reveals more about the IMF's contradictions than India's capabilities. The supreme irony? The country that stopped publishing monthly reports gets an implicit 'A,' while the country transparently improving its systems gets a 'C.' That's not surveillance; that's selective vision.

By February 2026, when India releases rebased data, the BRICS nations will watch whether the IMF recognizes genuine improvement or finds new reasons to maintain hierarchical rankings. The verdict is clear: Washington-based institutions remain instruments of Western economic hegemony wearing multilateral masks.

The IMF's report card reveals more about the graders than the graded. India's surging economy and global influence suggest the market has issued its verdict—valuing performance over paperwork, reality over ratings, results over institutional rubber stamps.

Perhaps it's time the Fund learned the same lesson.

விண்மீன் பால் சாயாதே!

 கண்களின் கவர்ச்சிக்குள் காதல் சிக்காதே

மண்ணிலே வாழ்ந்திடு - விண்மீன் பால் சாயாதே!

பகைவரின் பேச்சினைப் பாரும் கூர்ந்தே நீ

நகைமுக நண்பரின் நாட்டம் போகாதே!

ஆயிரம் பேர்வழி ஆக்கம் தராதடி

ஓர் உணர்வை ஓதிடு - ஊர்வழி செல்லாதே!

சாபமே சொல்வதில் சாதுரியம் கொண்டவர்

தூபமாய் போற்றிடும் தூபிகள் நாடாதே!

புதுவழி படைத்திடு புண்ணியம் உனக்கென -

பழையதோர் பாதையில் பாதம் வைக்காதே!

கள்ளத்தோழர்களின் காதல் கண்மூடி -

உள்ளமே உருக்கிடும் ஓலைக்கு ஏங்காதே!

அருணகிரிநாதரின் சந்தக் கவிதையின் இலக்கியச் சிறப்பு

இளையராஜா இசையமைத்த "சங்கத்தில் பாடாத கவிதை" என்ற பாடலை நீங்கள் அனைவரும் கேட்டிருப்பீர்கள் என நினைக்கிறேன்.

சங்கத்தில் பாடாத கவிதை

அங்கத்தில் யார் தந்தது

த ர ரரரரரர த ர ரரரரரர

சந்தத்தில் மாறாத நடையோடு

என் முன்னே யார் வந்தது

த ரரரரரரர த ரரரரரரர

இந்த நவீன கால பாடல் சந்தம் என்ற தமிழ் கவிதை வடிவத்தையும் இசையமைப்பையும் அழகாக விளக்கும் ஒரு எடுத்துக்காட்டாகும். இந்தப் பாடலில் 'சங்கத்தில்', 'அங்கத்தில்', 'சந்தத்தில்' என்று மீண்டும் மீண்டும் வரும் ஒலிப்பொருத்தங்களும், தாளக்கட்டுகளும் நவீன தமிழ் திரையிசையில் சந்தத்தின் மகத்துவத்தை நிரூபிக்கின்றன.

"சிப்பி இருக்குது, முத்தும் இருக்குது திறந்து பார்க்க நேரமில்லடி ராசாத்தி..."   இது மற்றுமொறு புகழ் பெற்ற பாடல், சந்தம் பாணியில்.

இந்த நவீன கால உதாரணங்களிலிருந்து காலத்தை பல நூற்றாண்டுகள் பின்னோக்கி பயணிப்போம். பதினைந்தாம் நூற்றாண்டில் தோன்றிய அருணகிரிநாதர் சந்தக்கவிதையின் உச்சகட்டத்தை அடைந்தவர். தமிழிலக்கியத்தில் சந்தக்கவிதை என்பது இசைக்கும் கவிதைக்கும் இடையிலான அற்புதமான பாலமாகும். சந்தத்தின் சிறப்பு என்னவெனில், ஒவ்வொரு சொல்லும் குறிப்பிட்ட இசைநயத்துடன் பின்னிப்பிணைக்கப்பட்டு, கேட்பவரின் உள்ளத்தில் அலைகளை எழுப்பும் கலைவடிவமாகும்.

அருணகிரிநாதரின் திருப்புகழ் பாடல்கள் சந்த இலக்கியத்தின் கொடிகட்டிப் பறக்கும் சான்றுகளாகும். ஆயிரத்திற்கும் மேற்பட்ட பாடல்களில் ஒவ்வொன்றும் வெவ்வேறு சந்த அமைப்புகளைக் கொண்டவை. ஒரே சந்தத்தை இரண்டு பாடல்களில் மீண்டும் பயன்படுத்தவில்லை என்பது அவரது மேதைமையின் சான்றாகும். திருவகுப்பு, கந்தர் அலங்காரம், கந்தர் அநுபூதி, வேல் விருத்தம் போன்ற படைப்புகளையும் ஆர்வமுள்ளோர் ஆராயலாம். சந்த இலக்கியத்தில் திருஞானசம்பந்தர், மாணிக்கவாசகர் போன்றோர் முன்னோடிகள் என்றாலும், சந்தத்தின் சுதந்திரமும் இசையழகும் அருணகிரிநாதரிடம்தான் முழுமையாக மலர்ந்தது.

சந்தம் என்றால் இசை, ஓசை, ஒலிப்பொருத்தம் என்பதாகும். தமிழின் தொன்மையான இசை மரபில் சந்தப்பாடல்கள் முக்கிய இடம் வகித்தன. பிற்காலத்தில் கர்நாடக சங்கீதம் தென்னிந்தியாவில் பெரும் வளர்ச்சியடைந்து தனக்கென புதிய வடிவங்களை உருவாக்கியது. இரண்டு இசைமரபுகளும் தமிழகத்தில் இணைந்து வளர்ந்தாலும், திருப்புகழ் போன்ற சந்தப்பாடல்கள் தமிழின் தனித்துவமான இசைமரபை இன்றும் முழுமையான இசையழகுடன் பாடப்படுகின்றன.

அருணகிரிநாதரின் சந்த அமைப்பில் பல தனித்துவங்கள் உள்ளன. ஒலிப்பதிவின் அடிப்படையில் சொற்களை அமைத்து இசைநயத்தை உருவாக்கியுள்ளார். 'தனதனத் தந்தந்த' போன்ற சொல்லமைப்புகள் குறிப்பிட்ட தாளக்கட்டுகளை உண்டாக்குபவை. சொற்களின் நீட்டலும் சுருக்கமும் மிகத் திறமையாக கையாளப்பட்டுள்ளன. மேலும் அவரது சொல்விளையாட்டு அசாதாரணமானது - இரட்டுறமொழிகள், உவமைகள் என பலவிதமான கவித்திறன்களை ஒரே பாடலில் பயன்படுத்தியுள்ளார்.

அருணகிரிநாதரின் திருப்புகழ் பாடல்களில் ஒன்றை எடுத்துக்கொண்டால்,

"முத்தைத்தரு பத்தித் திருநகை அத்திக்கிறை சத்திச் சரவண முத்திக்கொரு வித்துக் குருபர எனவோதும்"


இதில் குறிப்பிட்ட எழுத்துகள் மீண்டும் மீண்டும் வருவதால் தாளச்சிறப்பு உண்டாகிறது. சொற்கள் பல பொருள்களில் வரும்வண்ணம் அமைக்கப்பட்டுள்ளன. உதாரணமாக 'முத்து' என்ற சொல் முக்தி என்ற ஆன்மீகப் பொருளிலும், வெண்முத்து போன்ற பற்கள் என்ற நேரடிப் பொருளிலும் வருகிறது. 'பத்தி' என்பது பக்தி. இவ்வாறு ஒவ்வொரு வரியிலும் சொல்லாட்சியின் பல பரிமாணங்களும், தாளத்தின் இசைப்பாங்கும் இணைந்து வருவதைக் காணலாம்.

அருணகிரிநாதரின் பாடல்களில் செந்தமிழின் இலக்கண விதிகளோடு, எளிய மக்களும் புரிந்துகொள்ளும் வழக்குச் சொற்களையும் இணைத்துள்ளார். இயற்கைக் காட்சிகள், உவமைகள் பாடலின் பொருளை ஆழப்படுத்துகின்றன. ஒவ்வொரு திருப்புகழையும் ஆராய்ந்தால், மறைந்திருக்கும் பல அர்த்தங்களையும் சொல்லாட்சி நுட்பங்களையும் கண்டுகொள்ளலாம்.

நவீன காலத்தில் திருப்புகழின் மகத்துவம் பலருக்கும் முழுமையாக தெரியவில்லை. அருணகிரிநாதரின் திருப்புகழ் தமிழின் இசைவளத்தையும் கவித்திறனையும் ஒரே சேர வெளிப்படுத்தும் அரிய படைப்புகளாகும். ஒவ்வொரு பாடலும் தனி ராகமும் தாளமும் கொண்டது. அவரது சொல்லாட்சியும் பொருளாழமும் ஒப்பற்றவை.

நவீன தமிழ் பேசும் மக்கள் தங்கள் மொழியின் இந்த பொக்கிஷத்தை அறிய வேண்டும். திருப்புகழை வெறும் பக்தி பாடல்களாக மட்டும் பார்க்காமல், இலக்கியப் படைப்பாகவும் இசைக்கலையின் உச்சமாகவும் அணுக வேண்டும். தமிழின் சந்த இலக்கியத்தில் அருணகிரிநாதர் ஒப்பற்ற மன்னன்.

வாரியார் சுவாமிகள் கூறியது: "அருணகிரியார் என்றாலே கவிதையின் கடவுள். தமிழ்மொழியின் திறமையையும் இசையின் இனிமையையும் ஒன்று சேர்த்தால் அது திருப்புகழ். ஒவ்வொரு சொல்லிலும் இசை, ஒவ்வொரு எழுத்திலும் பக்தி, ஒவ்வொரு பாடலிலும் கவிதையின் உச்சம். தமிழ் மொழி இருக்கும் வரை திருப்புகழும் இருக்கும்; திருப்புகழ் பாடப்படும் வரை தமிழின் இசைவளமும் வாழும்."

इज़हार न था

सफ़र में कोई भी हमसफ़र इकरार न हुआ,

हम चलते ही रहे पर दिल को करार न हुआ। ।

रास्तों ने हमें आज़माया जाने कितनी दफ़ा,

मगर कहीं भी उम्मीद का कोई दीदार न हुआ। ।

हवा तो थी मगर उड़ानों का ज़रा भी वक़़्त न था,

परों में जोश था लेकिन कोई पैग़ाम न हुआ। ।

हमने उम्रभर चराग़ों की तरह जलना तो सीखा,

पर रोशनियों को हमारी कोई स्वीकार न हुआ। ।

‘मनन’ ने दिल की हर धड़कन में तेरी याद बचाई,

क्या-क्या किया मगर तुझसे कभी इज़हार न हुआ। ।

==============

On this journey, not even a momentary companion ever came my way;

I kept walking endlessly, yet my heart never found a moment of peace. ।

The roads tested me again and again, in countless ways;

But nowhere did I ever witness even a glimpse of true hope. ।

There was wind, yes—but never the right moment for flight;

My wings had passion, yet no message of destiny arrived. ।

All my life I learned how to burn like a lamp in the dark;

But my light was never welcomed or embraced by anyone. ।

Manan kept your memory alive in every heartbeat;

I did so much—but never found the courage to confess to you. ।

The Great Inversion: How Agentic AI is Ending the SaaS Era and Birthing Service-as-Software

 

A Quiet Ending to a Loud Era

For two decades, the software-as-a-service model dominated the way we worked. We built sprawling platforms, trained people to navigate layers of menus and workflows, and convinced entire industries that “power users” were a virtue rather than a symptom.
The strange irony? The tools designed to simplify work slowly made humans work for the tools.

That chapter is ending. Not with a bang, but with a silent turning—an inversion of the relationship between humans and software.

What We Mistook for Progress

SaaS made software easy to access, but not necessarily easy to use. We celebrated feature counts instead of outcomes. We created dashboards no one fully understood and workflows that required specialists to manage other specialists.

Consider the modern mid-market tech stack:

• A CRM that demands weeks of onboarding

• A project tool with dozens of layouts and views

• Analytics platforms usable only by analysts

• Marketing automation requiring its own mini-profession

• Communication tools that multiply the number of meetings

We didn’t simplify. We complicated. We didn’t empower. We intermediated.
We built tools so complex that we hired armies to operate them.

And all the while, the obvious problem sat in plain sight: humans weren’t meant to serve software. Software was meant to serve humans.

The Agentic Turn: When Software Starts Working For You

Agentic AI marks a fundamental break from everything before it. It isn’t “better automation.” It isn’t “smarter software.” It’s a reversal of roles.

For years, the central question was:
“How do I use this tool to get what I want done?”

Agentic AI replaces that with:
“What do you want done?”

The distinction is profound. It shifts software from instrument to operator—from something you wield to something you direct.
A chauffeur instead of a car. A chef instead of a cookbook. A colleague instead of a tool.

When AI systems began planning, reasoning, writing code, executing workflows, and coordinating across applications on their own, we weren’t watching software get easier.
We were watching software become the workforce.

Service-as-Software: The New Foundation

Service-as-Software (SaS) redefines software’s purpose. Old SaaS sold interfaces and features. SaS sells outcomes.

You don’t manage workflows. You state intentions.
You don’t operate software. You receive results.
The “how” disappears into intelligent agents that understand your context, your objectives, and your constraints.

What distinguishes true SaS?

1. Intent over interfaces
You set goals, not clicks.
“Improve customer retention by 10%” becomes the command—not an afternoon spent navigating dashboards.

2. Autonomous execution
Agents don’t assist; they act. They make decisions, handle exceptions, and iterate without micromanagement.

3. Continuous context
The system knows your business history, preferences, and patterns. There’s no onboarding. It’s always aware, always ready.

4. Seamless orchestration
Agents navigate the full tool ecosystem, coordinating APIs, data sources, and services as if they were one cohesive system.

5. Learning that never stops
Updates aren’t quarterly releases—they’re daily improvements driven by real outcomes.

Proof the Shift Has Already Begun

You can already see the seams of the old SaaS world splitting:

• Customer Support: End-to-end resolution without humans in the loop.

• Software Engineering: Small teams shipping at massive velocity with agentic pair-programmers.

• Sales Ops: SDR-style tasks performed autonomously—qualification, outreach, scheduling, CRM updates, everything.

• Finance & Accounting: Reconciliation, reporting, anomaly detection, and projections handled in hours, not weeks.

• Creative Work: Agents ideate, produce, test, and refine campaigns—not as tools, but as creative collaborators.

• Healthcare Admin: Claims, scheduling, authorizations, and billing handled by agents that reduce administrative load across the board.

Where work is structured, repeatable, or rules-driven, agents are already taking over the execution.

The Economic Shift No One Can Ignore

The cost structure of SaaS assumed that software was hard and humans were cheap.
But SaaS always required humans—expensive ones—to operate it.

A typical enterprise bought:

• Software: $100K

• People needed to run it: $500K

Service-as-Software demolishes this logic.
You buy outcomes—not seats, not licenses, not training classes.

It’s not a cost optimization. It’s a structural collapse of an entire economic model.

A New Entrepreneurial Cambrian Explosion

Barriers to building new companies have cratered:

• No need to build monolithic platforms

• No need for large teams to operate them

• No need for technical end-users

• No need for massive capital to get started

A new species of company is emerging:
Agent-native businesses: firms with tiny headcounts, no dashboards, no feature lists—just outcomes delivered by orchestrated agents.

These companies will disrupt every domain where processes dominate and results can be measured.

SaaS Incumbents Face Their Biggest Reckoning Yet

Traditional SaaS companies make money by selling seats—more people = more revenue.
The agent era eliminates “users” entirely.

Pricing becomes value-based.
Interfaces become irrelevant.
Seat expansion evaporates.

Some incumbents will try to bolt agents on top of existing interfaces—only to cannibalize themselves.
Others will acquire agent-native startups only to reject their ideas internally.

Most will deny what’s coming until their customers adopt outcomes instead of platforms.

The Human Question

If agents do the work, what do humans do?

The answer is the same as in every technological leap: humans move up the value chain.

We shift from:

• Operators → Orchestrators

• Specialists → Strategists

• Executors → Evaluators

• Workers → Owners

When execution becomes abundant, judgment becomes precious.
The rarest skill will be the ability to define the right objectives and interpret the results—not to perform the tasks.

The New Moats of the Agent Era

The advantage no longer comes from UX, user counts, or platform lock-in. It comes from:

1. Outcome quality

2. Domain-specific expertise

3. Trust and auditability

4. Rate of learning

5. Multi-agent orchestration

Winning won’t be about building bigger platforms. It will be about building smarter, more reliable, more context-aware agents.

The Contrarian Truth: Humans Become More Valuable

As AI handles execution, what differentiates humans becomes sharper:

• Insight

• Context

• Judgment

• Creativity

• Intuition

• Ethical reasoning

• Human connection

Agents amplify us—but they don’t replace the uniquely human capacities that create direction, meaning, and purpose.

The Next 1,000 Days

By 2026:
SaaS companies layer agents on top of legacy platforms. Early agent-native startups hit escape velocity.

By 2027:
Enterprises procure outcomes instead of software products.

By 2028:
Mergers, acquisitions, and failures reshape the SaaS landscape entirely.

By 2030:
We stop talking about “Service-as-Software.”
It just becomes software.

Your Options—If You’re Building Today

You can:

A. Defend
Hold the old model together. Layer features. Raise switching costs. Hope your customers move slowly.

B. Transform
Automate your own workflows before a competitor does.

C. Reinvent
Build agent-native from scratch and redefine a category.

Only one of these creates the future.

A Deeper Shift in How We Think About Work

SaaS made humans the operators.
SaS makes humans the principals—setting direction while agents perform the execution.

For the first time, digital work can be delegated rather than performed.

We are entering a world in which humans no longer “use tools” but instead manage intelligent collaborators.

A Manifesto for What Comes Next

We announce the end of the SaaS era—not because it was a failure, but because it reached its ceiling.
It brought software to everyone, but buried them under complexity.
It offered leverage, but created operational drag.
It digitized tasks, but multiplied the tasks needed to keep the digitization running.

It’s time for a new model—one where outcomes matter more than interfaces, where intelligence matters more than features, and where software adapts to people rather than people adapting to software.

The inversion has already begun.
The only decision left is whether you participate or get left behind.

The future is built by those who see the turn and choose to accelerate into it.

The revolution starts with your next decision.

Why 2025’s “Mini Corrections” Could Turn Into Major Drawdowns

 Global markets are entering 2025 in a fragile equilibrium—supported by pockets of AI-driven growth, yet exposed to an unusually dense cluster of risks across rates, geopolitics, valuations, currencies, and commodities. Historically, markets can absorb one or two shocks at a time; what creates deeper drawdowns is when these shocks hit simultaneously. Today, that alignment risk is unusually high.

Rates, Bonds and the Dollar: The Three Pillars of Global Liquidity

Long-End Yields Back in the “Restrictive” Zone

The US 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.0%, while the 30-year stands around 4.65%, both drifting at the upper end of their 2025 range of 4–5%. Compared with the post-GFC decade—when yields often sat below 3%—today’s levels represent a materially restrictive backdrop.

A renewed rise toward 5% or above would tighten financial conditions, compress equity valuations (especially long-duration sectors like tech and AI), and raise recession odds. With equity indices heavily skewed toward long-duration mega-cap names, any equity bottom formed in such an environment would be fragile.

Rate Cuts Meet Sticky Inflation

Central banks have begun easing, but the US is cutting into a backdrop of still-elevated term premia, slowing labor markets, and tariff-driven inflation risks. If inflation re-accelerates on the back of oil, freight disruptions, or higher import duties, the Fed may be forced to pause—or even reverse—its cuts. Historically, second-wave tightening cycles (e.g., 1994, 2018) have been toxic for both equities and bonds.

Dollar Strength and Its Global Spillovers

Higher real yields and safe-haven demand could strengthen the US dollar. A stronger dollar tends to:

• Tighten global financial conditions

• Raise debt-service costs for emerging markets with USD liabilities

• Pressure commodities, EM equities, and local currencies

• Force FX interventions or capital controls in vulnerable economies

Given that nearly 60% of EM external debt is dollar-denominated, a USD spike is a volatility amplifier.

Japan, Yen Carry Trades, and the Slow End of “Zero-Cost Money”

BOJ Normalization Redefines Global Liquidity

For the first time since the early 2000s, Japan has exited negative interest rates, lifting policy rates to ~0.5%. Ten-year JGB yields have risen to multi-decade highs, ending an era where Japanese investors could borrow at near-zero cost and deploy capital globally.

Yen Carry Unwind: The Quiet Risk Few Are Pricing

As Japanese yields rise, capital is slowly being repatriated. USD/JPY is hovering near the 155–156 area—a zone associated with past BOJ interventions. A disorderly yen spike would force rapid de-leveraging of yen-funded positions across equities, credit, and EM markets.

Past “VaR shocks” (2013, 2015, 2018) show how quickly such unwinds can cascade into cross-asset selling.

China, Asia and Global Trade: Slowing Demand Meets Rising Protectionism

China’s Property Drag Is Structural, Not Cyclical

China’s growth is tracking near 4.8% against a target of “around 5%,” but its property sector remains a deep structural headwind. Residential sales by value fell 7.6% in Jan–Sep, and new home sales are projected to drop another 8% in 2025 and 6–7% in 2026.

Property—still contributing nearly 20–25% of China’s GDP via direct and indirect channels—continues to drag on:

• Local government finances

• Household wealth and confidence

• Regional import demand (commodities, machinery, luxury goods)

A weaker China impacts not just Asia but global corporate earnings.

Tariffs and Industrial Policy: The New Stagflation Risk

Broadening US and allied tariffs on EVs, tech, and green goods present a stagflationary mix: higher traded-goods prices and weaker trade volumes. For the Fed, this complicates the easing narrative; for equities, it implies pressure on margins and global supply chain disruptions.

Geopolitical Flashpoints: Taiwan & the South China Sea

Rising military activity in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea adds a significant tail risk. Any sanctions, naval incidents, or semiconductor export-control shocks would hit:

• Global manufacturing

• Rare-earth supply chains

• AI hardware and semiconductor ecosystems

Given that over 60% of the world’s advanced chips are produced in Taiwan, this is a non-trivial risk to the entire AI cycle.

AI Valuations, Market Concentration and the Risk of a Sharp De-Rating

The AI “Super Cap” Factor

The “Magnificent Seven” now account for ~30% of the S&P 500’s market cap. Some leading AI beneficiaries trade at forward P/Es above 50–70 despite modest realized AI revenues. While long-term AI themes remain robust, valuations leave little margin for error.

Even a small earnings miss or capex disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating, with index-level consequences.

Market Structure: Passive Flows Can Amplify Both Upside and Downside

Passive and benchmark-constrained funds mechanically chase the largest winners. The risk is that in a downturn, this mechanism works in reverse: quant, volatility-targeting, and risk-parity strategies de-risk simultaneously, turning a healthy correction into a liquidity vacuum.

Crypto, Gold and the Psychology of “Risk-On” Assets

Bitcoin’s Dual Personality

Bitcoin volatility has fallen over time but remains ~3.6x that of gold and ~5.1x that of global equities in 2025. Correlation with equities can spike to 0.70 during stress, meaning BTC is more likely to amplify a selloff than hedge it.

Large BTC drawdowns typically hit:

• Retail risk-taking

• Institutional trading books

• Cross-asset liquidity

Gold: The Ultimate Fear Barometer

Gold demand hit record quarterly levels in 2025. Prices have surged from ~$1,400 in 2020 to ~$3,400/oz—nearly 2.5x—driven by geopolitics, de-dollarization efforts, and investor anxiety. Persistent rotations into gold and away from equities typically signal deep macro distrust and precede volatility spikes.

US Politics, Fiscal Constraints and Policy Uncertainty

Large Deficits Meet Weak Political Consensus

The US is running elevated deficits with no clear political path toward long-term fiscal consolidation. Industrial subsidies, tax incentives, and AI-related capex support near-term growth but raise long-term debt sustainability concerns.

If growth slows, term premia may rise even as the Fed cuts—pushing long-end yields up and compressing equity valuations.

Tariffs and Inflation: A Policy Collision Course

Tariff expansions being discussed alongside rate cuts is an unusual setup for inflation control. If tariffs push goods inflation higher while wage growth remains firm, the Fed may need to slow or reverse cuts. Markets are not currently priced for this.

Election Cycle Uncertainty

The US election adds risk premia across:

• Tech regulation

• China policy

• Tax regimes

• Industrial strategy

A mix of protectionism and fiscal expansion would be particularly problematic for inflation and real yields—leading to valuation compression across asset classes.

Other Global Triggers: Energy, Shipping and Volatility Regimes

Energy and Shipping: Hidden Inflation Risks

Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Red Sea threaten to disrupt oil supply and global freight channels. Freight rates on some key Asia–Europe routes have already seen double-digit spikes during periods of tension.

A renewed surge in oil or shipping costs would:

• Slow real consumer incomes

• Squeeze corporate margins

• Reignite headline inflation

• Challenge central bank credibility

Volatility Regime Change

Markets remain anchored around low implied volatility. But lower-volatility carry strategies remain crowded. A sustained spike in the VIX can force systematic strategies (options sellers, vol-targeting funds) to dump risk assets rapidly, turning a slow correction into an “air pocket” drop.

The Risk Isn’t One Shock—It’s All of Them Together

Individually, none of these risks guarantees a bear market. But taken together, they form one of the most complex macro backdrops in recent years. What turns a mini correction into a deeper drawdown is not a single event, but the simultaneous interaction of:

• Rising long-end yields

• Sticky inflation and tariff risks

• AI valuation fragility

• China’s slowdown

• Yen carry unwinds

• Geopolitical flashpoints

• Volatility regime shifts

Investors should remain vigilant, diversify across real assets and defensives, and avoid over-concentration in high-duration, high-valuation sectors. The next phase of this cycle will reward discipline, liquidity awareness, and macro sensitivity more than the momentum-driven rallies of recent years.

नज़र आया

 दिल छुपा कर भी तेरी क़ुर्बत से कहाँ गुज़र आया |

जो भी लौटा तेरी महफ़िल से बदला हुआ नज़र आया |

तेरे सिवा कोई राह भी रूह को भा न सकी कभी |

हम ने जब भी ख़ुद को देखा, बस तू ही गुज़र आया |

सदियों से जिस नूर का रस्ता ढूँढ रहे थे लोग |

एक पल में दिल के आईने में वही सफ़र आया |

तैरते थे लाख समन्दर, फिर भी प्यास न बुझी |

जब तुझे पुकारा तो हर बूंद में तेरा असर आया |

रहगुज़र में जितनी भी ये उलझनें थीं रात-पहर |

तेरा नाम लिया तो जिस्मो-जाँ में नई ख़बर आया |

"मनन" ने जब अपनी पर्दा-ए-उदासी हठाया |

हर्फ़-हर्फ़ में तेरी सूरत उभरी—और तू नज़र आया |

“Even when I tried to hide my heart, Your nearness still passed through it.
Whoever returned from Your presence came back transformed.”

“No path ever truly pleased the soul except Yours.
Whenever I looked within myself, I saw only You passing through.”

“People searched for that eternal light for ages,
but in a single moment it appeared within the mirror of the heart.”

“Though I swam through countless oceans, my thirst never ceased.
When I called upon You, every drop of existence began to radiate Your influence.”

“All the confusions spread across the journey of nights and days—
the moment Your name was uttered, a new awakening spread within.”

“When Manan lifted just a corner of the veil of his sadness
every letter revealed Your face—You alone were visible.”

எப்படி?

அன்பின் நெறியை நான் ஆற்றிக் காப்பது எப்படி?

அங்கும் இங்கும் நெருப்பு—இதயத்தைக் காப்பது எப்படி?

இதயம் போகும் பாதையில்  எழும் இடி சுவர்கள்—

இவற்றை இடிக்க தைரியம் வரவழைப்பது  எப்படி?

துயரில் திளைக்கும் ஆயிரம் பாடல்கள் உள்ளே உள்ளது,

துடித்துச் சிதைந்த யாழை—தொட்டு இசைப்பது எப்படி?

வலம்  வரும் நினைவுகள் சுமை என்றால் சுமக்கலாம்,

வாழ்வே சுமையாக நின்றால்—நான் தாங்குவது எப்படி?

அன்பின் நெறியை நான் ஆற்றிக் காக்க ஆசை தான்,

ஆனால் இந்த உலகில் அதை நிறைவேற்றுவது  எப்படி?

காதின் குமுறல்

நானும் இன்னொரு காதும்—

நரனின்  இரண்டு உயிர். 

இடுக்கணின் இரட்டையர்கள்.

ஆனாலும்…

ஒரு நாளும் ஒருவரை ஒருவர்

நேரில் பார்த்ததில்லை.

எந்த சாபம் சுழன்றதோ—

எதிரெதிர் திசையில் எங்களை

எறிந்து வைத்த பிரபஞ்சம்,

எங்களைப்  பார்த்து

ஏளனம் செய்ததோ? 

நாங்கள்  பேச மாட்டோம்…

ஆனால் உலகின் எல்லாப் பேச்சையும்

நாங்கள்  தான் கேட்போம்!

கொலைவெறிக்  கோபமும்,

கோவிலுள் பாசுரமும் 

காதலின் கீதமும்

காதலியின் கிசுகிசுப்பும் —

எல்லாம் எங்களின் ஊடேதான்.

கண்ணாடியின் கட்டையும்

காதொலிப்பான் கருவறையும் 

கண்ணீரின் நினைவும் - எல்லாமே 

எங்கள் தோளில் தான் தாங்கும்.

கொடுமை என்னவென்றால்,

கண்கள் பார்த்துச் செய்த தவறு - 

காதுகளுக்கு  தண்டனை!

குழந்தைப் பருவத்தில்

மாஸ்டர் கோபித்தால்

மடக்கப்படும் மெல் சதை நாம்;

அடக்கமாக இருந்தாலும்

அடிபடுவது நாமே.

பின்னர் வயது வந்ததும்—

அலங்காரத்தின் வேட்டை ஆரம்பம்.

உலோகமும், உருகிய காதலும்

இடமும் தேடி எங்களைத் துளைத்து,

இரண்டு துளிகள் வலியையும்

இனிதே அளித்தது  உலகம்!

எங்களுக்கென்று

கருமை "காஜல்"லும் இல்லை,

அழகு க்ரீமும் இல்லை;

மரத்த துளையின் வழியே 

மரம் போல மாட்டப்படுவது

காதணியோ, கடுக்கண்ணோ.

அரசியல்வாதியின் அங்கலாப்புகள்  - இல்லத் 

தரசியின் கிசுகிசுப்புக்கள்.

சுடு சொற்கள்,  சூளுரைகள்

கடுமைகள் , கதறல்கள் 

புசித்துப் புசித்து 

புளித்து விட்டது மானுடா !

எங்கள் குமுறலை 

எங்குதான் கொட்டுவோம்?

கண்ணிடம் சொன்னால்

கண்ணீர் சிந்தி பின் 

கழன்று கொள்ளும் 

மூக்கிடம் சொன்னால்

மூக்கு நுணியில் கோவம்!

வாயிடம் சொன்னால்

வாய்மொழி விளையாட்டு.

 

எங்கள் குறை 

தங்கி விட்ட்து எங்களிடமே!   

அனைவரின் சுமையையும்

நாம் தான் சுமப்போம்—

ஓதுவாரின் தேவாரம் முதல் 

ஒப்பாரியின் ஓலம் வரை.

மொய்வண்டு ரீங்காரம் முதல் 

மொபைலின் ரிங்டோன் வரை.

 மௌனத்தின் இசை நாம்.

வடிவில் சிறியது தான்- ஆனால் 

உலகின் சப்தம் எல்லாம்

உய்விக்கிறது எங்கள் வழியே தான்.

बुझती–बुझती पुकार की याद

वो बचपना, वो हवाओं में बिखरी महकती-सी रुत-ए-बहार की याद,

हर दिल को रोककर छू ले, वही मासूम-सी बुझती–बुझती पुकार की याद ||

वो दिन कि धूप भी हम पर लोरी-सी गिरती थी सकूँ भर-भर,

हर मोड़ पे मिलती थी ख़्वाबों की वो मासूम सी मुस्कान की याद ||

काग़ज़ के बस्तों में महफ़ूज़ रखा अपना छोटा-सा जहाँ,

हर पन्ने पर खिलता था आने वाले कल का कोई उद्गार की याद ||

साइकिल की साँसों में उड़ता था बचपन का सारा समंदर,

हर मोड़ पे रुककर हमको बुलाती थी वो शहर-ए-गुज़ार की याद ||

मनन कहता है—अब भी रूह में झिलमिल करती है रातों में,

आईनों में चेहरा अपना देख जगाती है कोई नन्हा-सा निखार की याद || 

था वो दौर

 कभी दिल पर न किसी फ़िक्र का कोई मौसम-ए-शोर ,

हमारी राहों में बस सादगी का उजला-उजला नूर – था वो दौर ||

वो सुबहें जब धूप भी कच्चे जज़्बों की तरह काँपती थी,

मिट्टी की महक में सपनों का अपना ही मधुर ग़ुरूर – था वो दौर ||

टूटे पंखों से भी हम आसमानों की ओर बढ़ जाते थे,

हर टहनी में लगता था कोई देवता बैठा हुज़ूर – था वो दौर ||

पुराने बस्तों में काग़ज़ का संसार था, पर कितना जीवंत,

हर पन्ने पर बचपन की धड़कनों का बीता हुआ सफ़र – था वो दौर ||

साइकिल की साँसों पर दोस्त हँसी के झोंके रख देते थे,

हर मोड़ पे लगता था दुनिया में बस मोहब्बत हज़ार-नूर – था वो दौर ||

डाँट भी थी तो जैसे किसी दुआ का धीमा-धीमा स्पर्श,

किसी ताने में भी मीठा-सा माँ का कोई दस्तूर – था वो दौर ||

नंगे पैरों की गली-क्रीड़ा में समा जाती थी कायनात,

लकड़ी की बल्ला-गेंद से भी खुल जाता था हर सुरूर – था वो दौर ||

जेब-ख़र्च माँगने की चाह भी दिल में जन्म न ले पाती थी,

एक टॉफी से ही मन हो जाता था रूहानी ज़र्रानूर – था वो दौर ||

दीवाली में पटाखों की लड़ तोड़–तोड़ कर जलाते थे,

चिंगारियों में अपना ही चेहरा दिखता था भरपूर – था वो दौर ||

“मैं तुमसे मोहब्बत करता हूँ” कहना हमको आता ही कहाँ,

मगर हर धड़कन में माता-पिता का चुपचाप दस्तूर – था वो दौर ||

दुनिया ने हिला डाला, सच की बरसाती ठंडक ने छू लिया,

पर दिल का बच्चा अब भी पीछे मुड़कर लेता है दूर-दूर – था वो दौर ||

मनन कहता है—यादों की चौखट पर आज भी धुआँ-सा उठता हूँ,

कोई रात अचानक बचपन की रौशनी ले आए हुज़ूर – था वो दौर ||

The Paradox of Admiration: My Complicated Relationship with TM Krishna’s Music

There is an old joke about the Hindi-film villain Ajit who commands, “Robert, throw this fellow into a tank of liquid oxygen. The liquid won’t let him live, and the oxygen won’t let him die.”

Some days, I feel like that unfortunate fellow—caught between two irreconcilable truths.

As a rasika, I find myself unable to live without TM Krishna’s music. As an observer of his public persona, I find it hard to reconcile his political rhetoric and perpetual provocations with the transcendence he achieves on stage. I swing between awe and irritation, admiration and exasperation—year after year.

I have tried, more than once, to boycott his music. It never lasts. Inevitably, I run into mediocrity—popular kritis rendered without depth, without imagination. And in those moments, I miss the unmistakable TMK touch. I find myself returning to his music for solace, only to be unsettled again by his next ideological outburst. The cycle repeats.

Take, for instance, this rendition of a Muthuswami Dikshitar classic in Kamboji (link below)—a ragam TMK has long excelled in. His approach to this composition demonstrates the full expanse of his musicianship: his mastery, his imagination, and his total immersion in the art.

He begins with a viruttam, building the atmosphere brick by brick. He travels deep into the labyrinth of Kamboji before gently easing into the pallavi. Like a painter laying strokes of colour, he explores combinations of swaras, shades of emotion, and lyrical interpretation. Even at a measured tempo, the music stirs something primal. His enjoyment of the sahitya and his own swara pathways is unmistakable—and contagious.

The neraval in the anupallavi’s opening line showcases his precision and his intimate relationship with the ragam’s grammar. He then accelerates through the remainder of the phrase and dives into the charanam—a vast ocean of musical possibility. His use of the madhyama sthayi sparkles, and the second neraval is handled with both restraint and flourish.

And then comes the finale: the pallavi summarised in three speeds, beginning with the fastest and tapering into the slowest. It is sheer brilliance—technical, aesthetic, emotional.

And yet, as the final notes fade, I am left with a disquieting duality. I see in him shades of Ravana—Aalavandhaan’s haunting depiction of “Kadavul paadhi, mirugam paadhi.” Ravana, after all, was a genius: a veena virtuoso, a Vedic scholar, a devout Shiva bhakta—and still capable of profound darkness. History has chosen to remember primarily his flaws, not his brilliance.

Will TM Krishna become the Ravana of the modern musical kingdom—unquestionably gifted, yet remembered as much for his controversies as for his genius?

Only time will tell.

For now, I continue to live in this paradox: unable to relinquish the music, and unable to ignore the man.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkEiI9oqS-4

PS: The only other rendition of this song, that matches this level of Brilliance is that of Madurai Mani Iyer. I have tries at least 50 other musicians’ rendition of this song.