Tech in modern warfare

 Modern warfare is being fundamentally reshaped. From Ukraine’s battlefields to China’s military reforms, it is clear that 21st-century conflicts are driven more by technological superiority than by sheer troop numbers. For India, with roughly 1.2 million active personnel, this shift presents both a challenge and a strategic opportunity.

Ukraine has emerged as a real-world laboratory for future warfare. The conflict shows how inexpensive technologies can neutralize traditional military advantages. Commercial drones costing a few hundred dollars have destroyed tanks worth millions, while AI-driven targeting, real-time satellite imagery, cyber warfare, and precision munitions have proven more decisive than massed infantry. Ukraine’s use of Starlink communications, crowdsourced intelligence, and AI-assisted artillery has demonstrated that smaller, networked units can outperform large conventional formations.

China offers a parallel case study in deliberate military transformation. In 2015, President Xi Jinping reduced the PLA by 300,000 troops—not as a sign of weakness, but to redirect resources toward advanced capabilities. Investment shifted to hypersonic missiles, stealth aircraft, cyber and space warfare, AI, autonomous systems, and advanced command structures. The creation of the PLA Strategic Support Force consolidated cyber, electronic, and space warfare, enabling China to build one of the world’s most technologically advanced militaries with fewer personnel.

By contrast, India’s armed forces remain largely structured around mid-20th-century doctrines. Personnel costs consume about 60% of the defense budget, leaving limited room for modernization, R&D, and emerging technologies. This creates a cycle where maintaining large forces crowds out investment in drones, AI, cyber capabilities, and space-based intelligence.

Reducing India’s army to around 700,000–800,000 personnel is not about weakening national security, but redefining it. Such a shift could free billions annually for force-multiplying technologies: drone warfare, cyber units, AI-enabled logistics and surveillance, missile defense, and autonomous border monitoring. Given India’s geography, sensors, UAVs, and satellites can often outperform large troop deployments, especially in remote and mountainous terrain.

Critics point to multiple hostile borders, deterrence concerns, and employment issues. However, modern deterrence increasingly comes from technological capability rather than numbers. Precision strike capacity, cyber resilience, and space assets often deter adversaries more effectively than infantry divisions. A phased 10–15 year transition, managed through attrition and retraining, could also shift employment toward higher-skill roles in defense technology and industry.

Future wars will be decided by information dominance, precision, and multi-domain operations—not by oversized conventional forces. As China accelerates modernization and Ukraine reveals the future of warfare, India cannot afford to remain anchored to outdated structures. The real question is not whether India should reform its force structure, but whether it can afford not to. In modern warfare, capability and intelligence increasingly outweigh numbers.